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Thursday, January 15, 2009

HDFC Bank (HDB) Earnings

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HDFC Bank (HDB) is down 7% today on earnings (slash) oil stocks are down (slash) every emerging market stock trades together with oil. Earnings up, bad debt up - no surprises. Chart has taken a turn for the worse - but essentially this is a dry bulk shipper in drag as is every emerging market stock. They all trade in "one big horde".

Maybe after all is said and done HDFC Bank can start opening banks in the U.S. - we're going to need a few. (ICICI bank (IBN) already has opened branches in the U.S.)
  • MUMBAI, Jan 14 (Reuters) - HDFC Bank, India's second-largest private sector lender, beat forecasts with a 45 percent jump in quarterly profit on Wednesday, but its shares fell as much as 2.4 percent on rising bad debts. Banks in India are grappling with rising defaults by customers, caused by high borrowing costs and a slowing economy that has hit some jobs.
  • New York-listed HDFC Bank (nyse: HDB - news - people ) said its gross non-performing loans (NPL) rose to 19.11 billion rupees ($392 million) in the December quarter, up 14 percent from July-September. 'In the kind of environment we are going through, NPL are expected to go up,' Paresh Sukthankar, executive director said on television news channel CNBC-TV18. 'With adequate provisioning we are not too concerned by the slight rise.'
  • HDFC Bank, which has posted a 30 percent or more growth in net profit for 27 consecutive quarters, said net profit in its fiscal third quarter ended Dec. 31 rose to 6.22 billion rupees from 4.29 billion rupees a year earlier. That beat analyst expectations for a net profit of 5.9 billion rupees in a Reuters poll.
  • Net interest income, the difference between interest earned and interest paid, climbed 37.8 percent to 19.8 billion rupees.
  • 'It was a clockwork kind of results,' said Angel Broking banking analyst Vaibhav Agarwal. 'Everything was in-line or above except NPL deterioration which is something one needs to monitor despite the trying environment.'
  • Its capital adequacy ratio rose to 13.7 percent from 11.4 percent at end-September, after the bank raised 17.3 billion rupees in bonds in the December quarter.
In a relative world, these are quite good results but I cut back a bit as the stock broke support (but it's still a >1% stake). I'll look to add if it continues down ($50-$55 looks appealing for a second stake). But as I said above - overlap all these foreign emerging market names with a typical oil stock (or commodity) and the correlation is almost 1:1. Quite sad. We'll just call it HDFC Oil or HDFC Dry Bulk Shipping or HDFC Iron. All the same to HAL9000 - if oil is up, that means global growth is back - if its not all emerging markets are dying... 1st grade logic.

p.s. speaking of dry bulk shippers, DryShips (DRYS) and TBS International (TBSI) are right back at key support - ready to RUN the second this market rebounds. Gooooo Global Growth.

Long HDFC Bank in fund; no personal position


3 comments:

Risk Manager Jeff said...

drys is holding up really well... i dont get it! any thoughts? I feel like shorting it, but the market is already oversold.

TraderMark said...

its down over 20% in 3 sessions - I guess our definitions of holding up are different

its the daytrader plaything of choice now... daytraders use it as a proxy for the market in my opinion... they will flood into it like an 2x ultra long

just my take.

jegan said...

DRYS, EXM and SEA etc are all up because the Baltic Dry Index is up... Marginally. Just as everyone seemed thrilled at our 20% bear rally off the bottom, ignoring the fact that that doesn't even come close to recapping the drop over the last year, the minor bump in the Badry hasn't even nibbled at the 96% drop that it suffered.

Also, all the dividend shoppers don;t understand that part of a restructuring of a shipping company as it defaults is normally a requirement that they cut or cancel the dividends. An interesting link to bankruptcies in the shipping industry can be found here:

Panic in Asian dry bulk sector

Michelle Wiese Bockmann - Thursday 15 January 2009

MAJOR Asian dry bulk operators are on the brink of bankruptcy as defaults on chartering contracts potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars mount up and claims swamp courts in New York and London.

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/panic-in-asian-dry-bulk-sector/20017608534.htm

jegan

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