Earnings of Note for the Week

This is the first week of the real avalanche in earnings; below are some of the names we'll be watching. As I've been repeating for a while now - look for much talk of "needing to lower guidance" and "it's worse than we assumed" and "no visibility, we're pulling guidance". The stronger dollar, once a benefit to U.S. multinationals, shall increasingly be something they complain about.

Tuesday

CSX (CSX) - we always like looking at the railroads as economic indicators; they have been awful of late - (ahem) forecasting the 2nd half 2009 recovery I assume. As auto shipments declined in 2008 they increasingly relied on grains, fertilizers, ethanol, coal, et al. That's obviously weakened too.

Old holding New Oriential Education & Tech (EDU) and current "option on financials" holding Regions Financial (RF)

Bellweather type names: International Business Machines (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)


Wednesday

AMR (AMR), UAL (UAUA) - it will be interesting to see how much of a benefit these lower oil prices are benefiting some of the larger players; and how much a constrained consumer is offsetting that benefit.


Apple (AAPL) - infamous for under promising, over delivering; the last bastion of U.S. consumer strength so we'll see how they did over Christmas. I expect a relatively sober outlook for 2009.

BlackRock (BLK) - our favorite asset manager but the chart shouts 'death'; could just be a victim of the "all things financial" flogging.

Burlington Northern (BNI) - see CSX

Coach (COH) - already warned for the quarter

CNH Global (CNH) - global industrial/agricultural machinery

United Technology (UTX) - one of those global bellweathers


Thursday (the most interesting day from this perch)

BB&T (BBT) - one of the better run banks but a lot of commercial real estate exposure

Capital One Financial (COF) - credit cards; we'd love to see a rally here so we can join the dark side

Fund holding EZCORP (EZPW) - we cut back last week due to weakened chart... since we don't like to take "lemming risk" (huge moves up and down based on momentum chasing lemmings) around earnings - that's another reason to cut back. However, the company has been hitting on all cylinders since we bought last summer - just not respected in the market and worries on cash advance business continue.

Google (GOOG) - stock has been suffering for a year as we figured it would in latter 2007. 2 largest advertisers in America? Banks and Auto Co's.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - already warned

ITT Educational (ESI) - another of these 'adult re-education' companies that have become the market darlings.

MEMC Electronic Material (WFR) - only interesting from the perspective of seeing just how badly the solar industry is doing

Fund holding Potash (POT) - I am not really looking that closely at these commodity stock earnings; they continue to trade in a horde and with very little to do with their individual metrics. Oil or the Baltic Dry Index movement means more than anything the company's are saying.

Tech bellweathers Microsoft (MSFT)/Nokia (NOK) - the former doesn't really interest me, but a strained consumer in Western countries is showing sign of extending their "replace" cycle in cell phones... curious on new data points there. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - I wonder if they are going to make it through this era.


Friday

General Electric (GE) - most of the time I could care less about General Electric but its financial business has been drawing much attention the past year. This is now a government support (FDIC backed) company.


Harley Davidson (HOG) - another company we've been sour on since 2007 due to it's perfect placement as "aspirational consumerism" merged with "big ticket item"...