Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Coulda... Woulda... Shoulda - DryShips (DRYS)

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I wrote earlier today I was shaking my head watching this commodity rally take place based on good bank/bad bank. Financials? Ok I get it... commodities? Huh!

Not even a week after DryShips (DRYS) tells people "we're in trouble" [Jan 22: DryShips (DRYS) - Reality Strikes Back] the traders with their memories with a half life of a fruit fly already were driving the stock back up. Fundamentals don't matter. Until they do.
  • DryShips Inc (DRYS) said two of its banks notified the Greek dry bulk carrier that it is in breach of certain financial covenants and it is currently in discussions with its lenders for waivers and amendments to loan covenants.
  • Shares of the company fell 15 percent to $10.39 in trading after the bell.
  • "Two of our leading banks, which collectively held $751.8 million of our indebtedness as of December 31, 2008, have notified us that we are in breach of certain financial covenants contained in our loan agreements," DryShips said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • The company added that it is in talks with another lender that currently holds $650 million of its debt regarding breach of loan covenants.
Coulda... woulda... shoulda... I was hoping to see the stock pop up tomorrow AM on "happy bank times are here again" so I could short it nearer to $14 (red line). Looks like that won't happen.

I am shocked the stock is only down 15% after hours as "broken covenants" have led to straight shots down to $1 land for many companies in other sectors. I guess the hope is these loans are renegotiated. If these banks don't bend, DryShips is going to be suffering a lot more than 15%. Maybe Greek Shipping is "too big too fail" in the mother land and they'll get a federal bailout.

Damn facts - keep getting in the way of a good daytrade.

No position

6 comments:

Passionate Investor said...

TM,
Look ABC and AN for good short candidates.
long downtrend and 200ma above the price

PI

TraderMark said...

ABC at resistance but making higher lows - iffy

AN - I'd love a piece of that if it gets to the 200 day

give me a shout if it does,

TraderMark said...

what I mean on ABC is its a 50/50 right here, could go either way... if it begins to reverse, a good short.

Passionate Investor said...

TM,
Your wish might be fulfilled today on AN. UP 15%.very close to 200ma

jegan said...

TM.. Found tis articles linked on 'TickerSpy'; Coulda... Woulda... Shoulda - DryShips (DRYS)... Watch out, you could end up on CNBC... Worse yet, co-hosting the Larry Kudlow Hour.... jegan

jegan said...

Here's an interesting story. HCN (Health Care Reit) just ran up from about $35 to $41+ on Jan 22nd news that it was moving to the SP500. Figured it would move up and then be a good short candidate after paying it dividend (7% per year). It probably would have been too, except the CEO resigned and quit the board yesterday and the REIT decided to float 5,500,000 shares of its common stock at $36.85.... jegan

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