Shorting NuVasive @ $36.90s with a 1.8% stake
The stock is exactly at its 50 day moving average ($37) - insurance #1
The stock topped out at $38 intraday 3 times in mid December - insurance #2
$38 is also a level you can see it BOTTOMED at twice in late October and November which for those of you in technician land lends to the famous saying: "support turns into resistance" - i.e. $38 is everything in this chart.
Hence stop loss will be at $38.25 (over the Dec intraday highs) - this would mean the stock broke through two resistance areas and we're wrong - if it triggers we take a 3.5% loss and live to play another day. Take a lot of losses but keep 'em small.
I'm going to target $33.75 and see if we can get a 8.5% gain.
Short NuVasive in fund; no personal position
6 comments:
also see DUG a potential short. it has all features u mentioned for NUVA.
Touching 50ma=28.22. past support = resitance
Yes, sold much of my DUG today - not for technical reasons but for "holy smoke, 13% straight down on the market" reasons ;)
Or you could go DIG long...
NUVA is strong in a bad tape - have to give it credit.
Long term Short opportunity: MTL might be a good shorting opportunity for the long term. They are at a very bad cash position with 4:1 debt to equity ratio. Their current ratio is 0.6 and their quick ratio is about 0.3. This is extremely bad. What is even worse is that steel and coal prices are going down reducing the cash flow for this company further. I don't see any way for this company to avoid bankruptcy unless they sell huge amounts of their assets or get government help. In either case this will cause a further reduction in share price due to dilution or reduced earnings
Mark
NUVA looks like a good short, because the R/R is solid, it's like 3:1 But it is slightly below/hanging on to the 50EMA, but above the 50 SMA.
Do you use the EMA arbitrarily, or is that what the "big guys" use or something.
bad, MTL was once one of my longs! You are right its in terrible shape - I feel bad - Putin killed it.
Bill, I've been using TA for about 6 years... as I played with SMA and EMA over the year it just worked for me. SMA works for others. Not being an institution I have no idea what they use. It's an art, not a science. My art project seems to work with EMA.
My main worry with it, is its holding up in a bad tape... but its a nice entry with an easy stop out. If you are wrong 50% of the time it's cool as long as your winners are bigger than your losers.
I'm actually rooting for a rally here - all the stuff i really want to short is down now 30%+ in a week and a half. Bah.
Same thoughts here, I've been waiting for a rally for a week, and the entire time I left 20-30% on the table for some of my favorite Ultra Short ETF's.
815 support held for now....that may mean something, if that breaks I don't think there's anything else except the last low. But VIX is up, we may be able to bust below any support with this volatility. Maybe we'll see some Obama-aid.
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