The 200 day moving average is down at $31 so I'll look at picking up some there, if we hit that level. Or if it gets back over $41 and holds it - right now the stock is in no man's land technically.
Yesterday morning it proceeded to drop to near $33 which made me feel smug. I had a limit order waiting at $31s... but no cigar. It reversed to $37 in the rally yesterday and in a snap of a finger is now back at $40, or just below where we began. Aye carumba.
For now, we're at the very top of no man's land - so I'm going to cut back to a 0.1% stake and then go on the same advice I said above - if we "break out" above resistance; I'll jump back in (maybe $41.50 based on the chart); or if it breaks back down to low $30s we'll add there. All I know is it makes me feel like I'm a twisted pretzel.
(note - this chart shows $33.75 as the 200 day, but my normal charting shows $31; obviously in this case I should of used this chart!)
As an aside for the market, I'm neutral on the near term (onus on bulls to hold S&P 850 by 4 PM today) - after being "bullish" as we hit S&P 820. The "easy money" if you will, was that 'turn' from S&P 820+, but as I wrote last week - with the failure to break out early last week and that reversal below S&P 920 we're now looking to sell into & short on any meaningful rally. Which is a change from our behavior the previous 7-8 weeks which was more of "dip buying" attitude. My hope is we get some better prices (nearer to S&P 880-900) to do so and some of the "worst of" junk begins to rally to higher levels. If not, we'll get back to the dark side on a break below S&P 820.If you remember, almost every "bailout" has been greeted with initial cheer (by "free market" participants) and then led to a sell off when reality struck. Seriously what is happening is pathetic - Bank of America pays $40B for Merrill Lynch (firms were paid for "advising this deal which was struck in under 48 hours; bonuses were paid out), then takes our TARP money and buys stakes in a Chinese bank - and then comes not 2 months later to the taxpayer to bail them out? It really is a disaster, disgusting, and shameful. And this won't be the last of it.
But other than that, I love the deal (ahem)
Long Allegiant Travel in fund; no personal position
2 comments:
Mark,
The kool aid really blew apart the NUVA trade.
I noticed today MCD looks very very similar.
It's a good short because in the land of fairies and obama there will be so much wealth no one will want mere $1 burgers.
Not a problem
it was a small loss and my only real insurance policy in case the bounce at 820 did not happen. What I gained in the longs made up for that 20 fold yesterday afternoon.
I really want to short some of the awful companies but they refuse to bounce :)
You have a nice set up in MCD, as long as it cannot recapture 59
WMT has also failed to regain much after falling ... man, if MCD and WMT cannot succeed in this economy it really says a lot.
Look at those railroads fall off a cliff as well
But! Baltic Dry Index up 0.0001% Everything must be fine.
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