I've been waiting a long while for
Illumina (ILMN) to show signs of life - the stock has built a huge base and Friday finally crossed over the 50 day moving average ($26). I wanted to see a confirmation and today we seem to have one - with the stock in the $27.30s I am moving the stake up from 0.9% to
3.5% of the fund. We have a very nice low risk trade here - if the stock breaks back below the 50 day moving average we can cut back. To the upside we have no serious resistance until the early November highs of $32, and past that the 200 day moving average of high $34s (which is falling by the day).
If the stock continues its move up, I would not be surprised to see the 200 day moving average coincide with the early November highs by the time the stock gets to the low $30s.
Holding such a substantial cash stake, I am looking for these low risk sort of long side entries (that can be quickly exited if need be) as we
outlined this weekend in potential portfolio candidates.
Long Illumina in fund and personal account
If the stock continues its move up, I would not be surprised to see the 200 day moving average coincide with the early November highs by the time the stock gets to the low $30s.
6 comments:
FTI is worth a look here (or CAM in same deepwater industry)... ANR has a nice basing pattern as a coal stock, love the inverse h&s breakout in TBSI
I have JRCC for now in coal; and basically every name you mention is the same them :) buy one, you get them all.
TBSI looks very nice though; mimic chart of JRCC. Do you happen to know how much of TBSI rates are spot versus long term? I've never looked at them very closely - been in the DRYS, EXM, of the world instead. They usually all move in one group with DRYS being the daytrader stock of choice.
I like NOV the best in 'service' but just have a hard time jumping on the 'oil is heading back to $80' trade with the global economy in such dire straights... I'm willing to sit this out with just the fertilizer and coal exposure at this point. When these stocks reverse it gets ugly very fast.
TBSI was one of the more aggressive companies in the business, operating primarily on spot rates instead of locking customers into long-term contracts. This strategy helped the company produce record profits during 2007 and early 2008 because day rates were out of sight.
Ok, so basically they are DRYS 2.0
Thought DRYS locked in a lot more long term contracts during the middle of 2008.
Stone,
You are correct they did. I am not sure the % but they did lock up some of those rates at super high levels. The main issue with DRYS seems to be their debt although daytraders can't be bothered with issues like that :)
There are a lot of names in this group (I think close to 10) so I only focused on 3-4
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