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Friday, December 12, 2008

JP Morgan's Dimon: Sorry to Rain on Kool Aid Parade; Bank of America (BAC) 35,000 to Be Axed

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First of all before you read this, just know "it's all priced in". Also, let it be known that everything will be fine by "2nd half 2009" so it's correct to buy stocks with both fists and sing joys of Obama. Because a world full of cranes and bulldozers, operated by former auto workers, newspaper editors, Wall Street bankers, Circuity City/Linens n Things/Steve n Barry (insert your favorite bankrupt retail company here) and mortgage consultants shall awash America. The masses of unemployed shall be buying large stocks of housing as "no job, no problem" mortgages re-invigorate the countryside (they used to be called no doc loans - now it's going to be 4.5% no appraisal loans). And the recession ends June 30, 2009. With that said, let's see what JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) have in store for us.

First Mr. Dimon at JPMorgan (JPM)
  • The chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM - News) said on Thursday the U.S. bank has had a "terrible" November and December, blaming the "normal culprits:" mortgages, credit, and high yield bonds and loans. (however bulls noticed Mr Dimon winking subtly every 18th word, which is a signal Dimon is letting us know subconsciously that everything will be fine by 2nd half 2009 and the government will backstop every thing in the entire country by June 30, 2009.) "November itself has been a terrible trading month ... (and) December so far is pretty terrible," Jamie Dimon told CNBC. "It will be a tough quarter." (stop looking backwards Dimon; things are A-Ok in 6 months so you need to buy stocks now)
  • Looking ahead (ok nevermind about that stop looking backwards thing), the CEO said U.S. housing prices -- which spawned the current credit crisis -- could fall another 20 percent. (hmmm, so you are saying the median housing price in America is still far too high and 4.5% mortgages won't save the system? heresay) He said that, "if we're lucky," the market could start to recover after two more quarters. (Yes Jaime, we will be lucky - Obama is the owner of a chain of retail outlets selling rabbit feet, and four leaf clovers - the "Obama effect" shall save us. Mr Dimon have you put thefall 2009 proposal of the US government through state "stimulus" buying US homes direct into your model? When we backstop everything with federal dollars nothing shall ever fall in price ever again. We'll be "fine" then.)
  • He dashed whatever likelihood there might have been of JPM hooking up with one of its struggling rivals, saying it doesn’t need a brokerage unit, and doubted the likelihood that two investment banks would merge. He added that JPM’s roll-up of the Bear Stearns assets have been harder and costlier than expected - a nice little morality tale for anybody who expected that salvaging the distressed assets of cratering banks, even at rock-bottom prices, represented a slam-dunk.
No worries, onto Bank of America (BAC) - 35,000 job losses over next 3 years. Not a problem - I have plenty of bulldozer jobs awaiting those folk. So 53K Citi, and 35K BAC. Pretty soon we're talking real numbers.
  • Bank of America Corp (BAC) said on Thursday it plans to eliminate 30,000 to 35,000 jobs over three years after it completes its purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co (MER).
  • The cuts could affect about 11 percent of the combined companies' roughly 308,000-person workforce. Bank of America employs about 247,000 people and Merrill about 61,000.
  • Bank of America said the expected cuts reflect the pending merger, as well as "the weak economic environment, which is affecting the level of business activity."
  • It said the cuts will come from both companies and affect all business lines and staff units. Final numbers of cuts will not be determined until early 2009, and "as many reductions as possible" will come through attrition, the bank said.
Anyone want to bet that it's going to be far higher than 30-35K within 3 years? I'll take the over on that...

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