Friday, December 5, 2008

Bookkkeeping: Booking Profit on our Genoptix (GXDX) Trade

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Unfortunately, we are all daytraders now or at best 24-48 hour swing traders. When profit is offered we have to take it. We rebuilt our Genoptix (GXDX) position hoping a double bottom had been formed Wednesday [Starting to Rebuild Genoptix] - the timing was excellent and we just about caught the exact bottom just over $26.00. The stock was back up to $29s yesterday and sits there today despite today's selloff.... we have a 12% gain in 48 hours so I'm going to book it Dan-O. As I wrote Wed:

Looking at a long term chart the stock bottomed in early July around $25, so I am hoping this creates a "double bottom" situation again. A close below $25 would be bearish as this condition would be broken so we'd sell assuming there is more downside from there. But for now, we'll increase exposure from 0.2% of fund to 1.4%, with purchases just over $26.00. Unfortunately, support turns into resistance so until proven otherwise the upside will be limited to the 200 day moving average which it just broke through not long ago (just under $31)

So we'll get out here in the $29.30s although I could still see another dollar of upside to mid $30s. I won't be greedy. A move north of this $31-$32 congestion in which a whole bunch of longer term moving averages collide would have us back to the name for a different reason (buying on strength) as opposed to why we just bought (buying on weakness and a long term double bottom) We are exiting our 1.6% position and taking it down to a 0.1% stake. It's nice to see a few trades actually work in this environment although it's like fending for table scraps in a back alley in 1934 America.

As for the market, we are still getting the "all the bad news is priced in" action - as I wrote yesterday

Everyone knows tomorrow will be a disaster on the employment report - after the initial knee jerk reaction we want to see what the market does around noon to 1 PM. That should be telling - but there has been a lot of shrugging off of bad news most of this week. Bulls will cling to that and if it continues one has to respect it. The faith in government to "save us all" which was so prevalent in latter 2007 and parts of 1st half of 2008 (in retrospect it was very misplaced) seems to have re-emerged with the Obama honeymoon factor. That is all based on sentiment which is impossible to game - you just have to watch the stock price action and if the equity market "believes" we go up. (even if the debt markets disagree).

So far so good - it's played out exactly as we imagined. Knee jerk reaction, bulls fighting back saying "all the bad news is priced in" - S&P 840 remains a pivotal point which is the area we are retracing to over and over... but nothing matters until 3 PM. The casino opens and each and every day this week the indexes have moved 2.5% in that hour. Bulls need to regain S&P 840 on the close; it remains all about sentiment and government actions since the news shall be horrid for a long time to come. Your hostess will be coming around to serve drinks in 90 minutes. Common sense would dicate a late day selloff as longs do not want to carry positions into the weekend but the market has very little to do with common sense.

Long Genoptix in fund; no personal position


3 comments:

minaccess said...

3 pm, casino time. I bought TNA for a trade at 26.25 before the casino opened. Hope it works, so far so good.

Zach said...

Hey Mark,

I missed your original piece on GXDX, but the name is one of my favorite long-term opportunities. Since they specialize in a niche market and have a long way to go to capture market share, sales growth should continue to be strong. And the company has great financial sanding with little need for external capital in the foreseeable future.

I write for Taipan Publishing Group and recently profiled the stock in one of my articles.

Can't blame you for taking profits with the market as fickle as it has been. But keep the stock on your radar - chances are you can make money on it again.

All the best,
Zach

TraderMark said...

Thanks Zach, its been one of the better positions I've had the past 3 months. Except for the past few weeks, I'll buy more on strength or a pullback - its sort of entering no man's land now where its a 50/50 probability to go either way

mini,
the issue now is this trend is so obvious it has to begin to falter at some point. When everyone sees something it no longer begins to work. I don't know how much longer this game can continue. We'll see.

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