Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Bookkeeping: Wish Me Luck

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They say to buy when others are fearful. I wonder if it applies to self

I don't normally break out my ETF trades since I'm adjusting them constantly but this will be a major switch so I'll show you my sins...

I'm cutting Ultra Real Estate (URE) from a 4.2% stake to 0.4% stake in the $7.00s.

I feel piggish and greedy for accepting your recent gifts, URE


I'm increasing UltraShort Real Estate (SRS) from 1.2% to 3.5% in the $53.50s

I'm doing all this due to a chart hitting resistance (the IYR which is the underlying index for both ETFs), and the fact SRS has dropped 50% (from peak) in 4 sessions.

The 50 day moving average shall stop you in your tracks, IYR


No one can literally be buying these REITs hand over fist; it must be hedge funds caught the wrong way and short covering as they take on more losses to "finish off the year in grand fashion". Wouldn't be the first time - the whole complex was long commodities/short financials going into July 1...

South of $48 I'll eject from SRS and take my marbles and go home. I will not buy back URE because it's just sick and wrong to own that in large quantities for more than a week, despite the gains she has given us the past few weeks.

Unfortunately it's casino hour so these REITs might be run up with the market as Fonzie makes his daily appearance. $48 - our line in the sand. At some point the SEC needs to investigate Fonzie....

And yes, I will not sleep tonight. ;)

Long Ultrashort Real Estate, Ultra Real Estate in fund; long Ultrashort Real Estate in personal account


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