Fitting.
Let's watch the defense of S&P 840... again. Remember, it's not the intraday action but the close that matters. Quintuple bottom here we come.... textbook theory would say each time we hit this level it weakens it and we should go lower. But 'outside forces' seem to in play... or if you believe otherwise, a lot of hedge funds are in there defending the S&P 840 level ;)
I do see a lot of bullishness actually the past few days on sites I peruse for (a) Thanksgiving rally and (b) end of year rally. Understandably this is generally a very seasonally strong time of year AND one could argue a market that is down 40% should not go down 50% or whatnot and a rally should be at hand.
But this bullishness bugs me. Maybe these people are correct, but I'd think we rally when not so many people are looking for it. Oh well, who really knows in the casino anymore when the house is in there buying with the people. A 5% up move would not surprise me anymore than a 5% down move.
That said, I will remain leaning bear until this market proves otherwise with something more than these 1 day shooting star rallies of 10% that are just quant funds trading in and out. It has been so long since we've built a multi week rally I cannot even remember (July? August?) A real rally will have legs and allow people to jump on board, and not end within 48 hours. We haven't had one of those since the summer and until the next one comes along this playground is only for daytraders.
I guess nothing really matters until 3 PM anyhow.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
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3 comments:
Mark it was definitely fake as is today's PPT effort.
Technicians abound (me too) see the huge descending triangle of death forming with baseline of 8170....a close below that on the DOW means PAIN.
Triple, quadruple bottoms don't hold, not when they're within 2 months usually.
PS: TSL is at $6
Actually I'm good with the market breaking down here since high cash and shorts offset longs with the rest, and a close below 830 will have me putting me even more into short side. At least that would "make sense" - technically we SHOULD be breaking down. The nonsense rallies we keep getting are the thing not making sense.
What hurt in late Sept/early Oct was neither technicals nor fundamentals matter. If we can at least get technicals to matter I'm ok with that. But for that to happen the market needs to go down - otherwise once again - nothing is working right.
TSL oh well, I sold on election day for the only 2 days its been up in months at mid $14s. Still hold 0.1% stake here but I'll add at $0.20 ;)
You know who is still up on that position. ;)
Mark, no worries you can make a huge comeback in days
I mean FAZ (the new 3X short, better than SKF) more than doubled since early last week. If you have 10-15% of portfolio in some 3X shorts and avert disster with the rest you can get into the green in a week. We go lower it was just a matter of time.
TSL reported....it was good stuff $1.15 EPS i think, amazing the stock is $6 and they make $1+ in one Q and reiterate guidance.
And they have sufficient cash and are making a ton of cash
I got all my money in cash and was looking to move into gold/FOREX but i cannot resist this action, especially with 3X ETF's, I'm getting back in soon!! I mean get on the right side of a huge mvoe with 3X leverage = HUGE gains.
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