Friday, November 21, 2008

Unbelievable

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I remember back in the day... like 2 days ago... thinking I needed to cut back Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) and not get greedy once this crosses over $200. Then the same thoughts at $250. Now we are in spitting distance of $300.

It's gained 100% in 6 sessions. This is the gift that keeps on giving [Nov 12: REITs Continue to be a Gold Mine on the Short Side]

When this reverses it's going to take 100 points off in 4 hours. (EDIT 4:20 PM - When I wrote this about an hour and a half ago SRS was $284, it fell in 70 minutes to $216 - nice call) But it has, along with a few others, saved our bacon here the past few days. I am taking some more off (selling) here, just because ... well you have to as a reasonable function of money management.

Today is interesting in that the Ultrashorts are not moving en masse - the foreign (China, Emerging markets) are actually down as are basic materials and oil. This could be an interesting divergence going forward - i.e. just because the US banking system and real estate sectors are a total disaster does not mean every country on Earth shuts down. Still too early to tell.

Remember out thesis is not the American-centric one currently touted everywhere in financial media i.e. The U.S. in all its might shall lead the world out of this mess; we're on the completely opposite tact here - the U.S. will be the last to recover and indeed the world shall drag us off the scrap heap. When that does happen you will see these sort of divergences week after week. But probably not on a sustained basis until about a year from now - when people realize the US recession is now a 3 quarter event. But when all the hedge funds who were in this same copy cat trade are finally extinguished, we could have a heck of a commodities/foreign stock rally - much earlier than a year from now.

Long Ultrashort Real Estate in fund and personal account


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