Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Let's Look at the Potential Upside

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So far some great action on the day - and the casino is yet to open. 3 PM is now at the doorstep - would you like a drink with your rally? I just hope all the folks who jump in at 3 PM for their one hour of work did not leave early for the holiday - we need their buying power; would really like to hold this S&P 770 level so I can drink Kool Aid in great quantities tomorrow.

I don't know the statistics but I'd love to see the % of up weeks over the past 15 years during Turkey week - it seems 80% of the time we have great action, especially in the more speculative stuff. I still remember 1999 because of the crazy moves in the worst of breed dot coms that week.

Other than Nov 4th/5th where we were teased, we have not closed above the 20 day moving average since mid September. Unlike then, there is a huge gap between the 20 and 50 day moving averages... so if we can hold these levels one could make a case for a move to the quickly dropping 50 day moving average (S&P 970s) before we face a dose of reality. Volume is quite paltry but for now I am putting on my turkey... err bull costume and saying it's possible. Remember, Friday is a short trading day and even less people will show up so those that need to move this market up to generate good vibes have an excellent opportunity. I assume the 3 PM rule will be moved to noon Friday since we close out at 1 PM.

Have a good Thanksgiving and remember, no turkey sandwich crumbs on the casino floor - this is a reputable establishment, back stopped by the full faith of the US Government.


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