We wrote a few weeks ago [
Oct 28: Pooring of Japan Too?] how we were seeing some troubling similarities in Japan to the US - growth in working poor, temporary employment allowing pay without benefits, income gaps increasing after free market reforms, et al. Now comes
this article from Bloomberg which is all the more remarkable considering (scary) the Japanese culture. I wonder if this is foreshadowing further parallels in the US of A. Societal strife will increase as a sense of stability and ability to provide for oneself/family is threatened. This continues to build into our case of a global "mean" in wages as capital has almost no boundaries - the middle class in richer countries suffer and the middle class in poorer countries improve.
- More senior citizens are picking pockets and shoplifting in Japan to cope with cuts in government welfare spending and rising health-care costs in a fast-ageing society. Criminal offences by people 65 or older doubled to 48,605 in the five years to 2008, the most since police began compiling national statistics in 1978, a Ministry of Justice report said.
- The government aims to cut 220 billion yen ($2.3 billion) from social welfare spending in each of the five years starting 2006 as it seeks to balance the budget by 2011. As part of this plan, the government introduced a new health insurance system that would raise premiums for some elderly patients.
- Theft is the most common crime of senior citizens, many of whom face declining health, low incomes and a sense of isolation, the report said. Elderly crime may increase in parallel with poverty rates as Japan enters another recession and the budget deficit makes it harder for the government to provide a safety net for people on the fringes of society.
- ``The elderly are turning to shoplifting as an increasing number of them lack assets and children to depend on,'' Masahiro Yamada, a sociology professor at Chuo University in Tokyo and an author of books on income disparity in Japan, said in an interview yesterday. ``We won't see the decline of elderly crimes as long as the income gap continues to rise.''
- About a fifth of Japanese are 65 or older, almost twice the proportion in the U.S. and three times China's rate. That figure will double to more than 40 percent by 2050, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. There will be twice as many elderly Japanese as there are children within five years.
- ``Some elderly, particularly men who lost their wives, even turn to crimes to be put in jail so they can be fed three times a day,'' Yamada said.
In a related note - not surprisingly,
Japan just fell "officially" into recession
- Japan's economy, the world's second largest, unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter, entering the first recession since 2001 as companies cut spending.
- Gross domestic product fell an annualized 0.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Economists predicted the economy would grow 0.1 percent after contracting a revised 3.7 percent in the previous period.
3 comments:
Hey mark, any chance of you getting back to posting some sort of tracking portfolio??? Maybe give MSN Investor a try. They have pretty good portfolio tracking software.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/stock_portfolio
Historian David Hackett Fischer has a fascinating book that I'm now rereading: The Great Wave.
The Wave (or waves) in question are price waves or revolutions. Enormous, secular surges in prices that eventually peak and crash to be followed by relatively stable equilibriums.
Fischer is clear that waves are not cycles. Cycles require detrending of the data. Waves require no massaging.
His time frame (and the data) is long - on the order of 1000 years. In which there have been 4 waves. He concentrates only on Europe although I'm sure the scope of the analysis could be expanded.
The 4 waves are the 12th century - the culmination of the high medieval ages. The 13th century, as you may know, was one of the most disastrous on record. It was 'just' the plague. The plague was proceeded by repeated harvest failures; starvation; and massive die-offs.
Then the relatively well-know price-revolution of the 16th century (the staggering inflow of silver and gold from Latin America into Spain and then Europe).
There's a lesser known wave (in Anglo-Saxon circles) from roughtly 1730 to 1800 (given that the end corresponds relatively closely to the French Revolution you shouldn't be surprised).
And finally the great price wave of the 20th century - which I'm not sure has finished yet.
Although maybe we're living in the crashing of this wave at this moment.
Anyway, one point that stuck from his characterization of the waves and the different social properties to be found at different levels. At the crest of the wave, returns flow almost entirely to capital (the rich). Everyone else is more-or-less pauperized.
And this would be a comprehensive phenomenon. Meaning, at the present day and time, global.
In Argentina during 2001 it was grandmothers who lead protests against the government:
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/2008/10/our-engineered-market-meltdown-part-2.html
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