Thursday, November 13, 2008


The only thing worse than being a fake fund manager is a fake fund manager whose trades don't go through and cannot even log into his account. Yesterday none of our trades "took" (they were just ETF exposure changes) and today I cannot even log into the account. In a market that can move 3% in 15 minutes that is not a happy thought.

We are obviously, as written yesterday, sitting at the S&P 850 level I wrote all of Wall Street was looking at - i.e. the great stop loss level - technically we could go down to S&P lower-mid 840s or so and I'd consider it still to be a hold, but lower than that and its run for hills time. Also, as I wrote yesterday we should at least get a cursory bounce when we got to 850; if what we saw this morning was all "the bounce" had, well it's a bit pathetic.

That said, I'd LIKE to take some short exposure off the table since we've had a successful week on that side of the ledger and I'd like to book some of those profits and not give them back (the S&P is down 100 straight points in 3 sessions); the potential for a snapback rally (which would be destined to fail) looms large and I'd rather book profits when offered. But if the S&P fell below 838 or so I'd get that exposure back and ride the next leg down.

But all that would require the ability to log into your account. Blah - very frustrating.

p.s. Russia tried to re-open their stock market today but when it went down 17% they quickly closed it. I wonder when it's our turn ;)

EDIT 12:20 PM: The lows intraday in late October were S&P 845 - at this moment we're at 843; hanging by a thread. Below 840 I'd expect a lot of people to throw in the towel and a wave of selling to commence. S&P 838 would be my line in the sand...

EDIT 1:20 PM: I'd REALLY like to take some short exposure off here in the 820s to 830 - and lock in these profits for the week, maybe 1/3rd of my short. Major frustration :) Now I can log in again but no trades go through. The whole idea of the short exposure is to profit from a terrible week like this. Banging head... on wall.

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