We are obviously, as written yesterday, sitting at the S&P 850 level I wrote all of Wall Street was looking at - i.e. the great stop loss level - technically we could go down to S&P lower-mid 840s or so and I'd consider it still to be a hold, but lower than that and its run for hills time. Also, as I wrote yesterday we should at least get a cursory bounce when we got to 850; if what we saw this morning was all "the bounce" had, well it's a bit pathetic.
That said, I'd LIKE to take some short exposure off the table since we've had a successful week on that side of the ledger and I'd like to book some of those profits and not give them back (the S&P is down 100 straight points in 3 sessions); the potential for a snapback rally (which would be destined to fail) looms large and I'd rather book profits when offered. But if the S&P fell below 838 or so I'd get that exposure back and ride the next leg down.But all that would require the ability to log into your account. Blah - very frustrating.
p.s. Russia tried to re-open their stock market today but when it went down 17% they quickly closed it. I wonder when it's our turn ;)
EDIT 12:20 PM: The lows intraday in late October were S&P 845 - at this moment we're at 843; hanging by a thread. Below 840 I'd expect a lot of people to throw in the towel and a wave of selling to commence. S&P 838 would be my line in the sand...
EDIT 1:20 PM: I'd REALLY like to take some short exposure off here in the 820s to 830 - and lock in these profits for the week, maybe 1/3rd of my short. Major frustration :) Now I can log in again but no trades go through. The whole idea of the short exposure is to profit from a terrible week like this. Banging head... on wall.
10 comments:
834 now.
That didnt last very long... I think next support lies at around 770...
Yep
Now they are taking out the stops one by one
Once that is over, the question will be do the bulls make a stand or just get rolled over. If so, down we will go.
The problem is most of this is so obvious it has me doubting it :)
Yikes. Now that the time has come, I'm like a deer in headlights.
May just buy some ultra short etfs and some longs, set a 5% stop loss and ride either one up. Regardless of what happens today, I'm wondering if the bad news and estimates slashings are already priced in (PE 1 here we come)...this level will probably indicate that.
Side note: This blog and the comments by posters is really helpful for people like me who are newer (especially seeing how you guys assess the wider perspectives)!
Back to 850. From a technical aspect, what matters the most: intraday low or closing price?
Closing
It is setting up quite textbook for at least a short term reversal
That I'm going to be sitting out due to technical malfunction.
Kicking the cat.
Hopefully, the system let you back in to reduce those shorts just as we were finding a bottom?
No, I'm frozen out for the day
they emailed me back and said all the ETFs changed to a new exchange and their systems didn't catch it so they will work on changing it overnight so trades begin to work tomorrow
I am really overweight on the short side and now as the market reverses I've lost about 1.5% worth of return just that quick that I could of locked in.
So would you buy the SP 500 today for a bounce?
textbook hammer pattern (well a pretty big hammer head). you could see how monday looks to assess if this was a fakeout or legit with good volume.
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