Monday, October 13, 2008

This Day in Infrastructure

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McDermott (MDR) +17%
Fluor (FLR) +16%
Jacobs Engineering (JEC) +15%
KBR (KBR) +17%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) +18%

Buy one, you get 'em all - as we've been saying for the past 3-4 months - this is not a market of individual stocks - simply sectors. No need to hold more than one because the market treats them all the same. We'll probably look to sell the last of our exposure tomorrow morning if we get one more pop as "global slowdown" bears will jump down our throat soon enough.

KBR is very interesting however, with $9 cash for a $17 stock, and a $2.5 B market cap with double digit (in billions) of backlog. Saw a certain TV pundit mention that in April 2009 they will have been public for 2 years and hence could be acquired. All of these are dirt cheap if you believe the world will not end in summer 09. Which ironically will probably be a good time to begin to load up on these type of names anticipating the global recovery of 2010 (which the U.S. will lag, not lead)

2011-2013 should be a doozy for these type of global engineering firms as the modernization and rebuild of world infrastructures continues. If credit were available I would not be surprised to see a slew of consolidations so we might have far fewer to choose from by '10. And yes, I'm already thinking that far ahead. ;)

p.s. as the previous post mentioned, S&P 960 seems to be our line in the sand for the day (thus far) - amazing how technical levels mean everything in an age where computers dominate man in the trading pits. Algorithms rule.

Long Foster Wheeler in fund; no personal position

1 comments:

gabriel said...

OT: British satire

Macro Man has a funny attempt at satire using Sherlock Holmes theme.
http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/10/mystery-of-stolen-plans_13.html

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