- Researchers led by Stephen Quake of Stanford University in California created a way to look for the extra chromosomes that cause Down's and similar birth detects in the tiny amounts of fetal DNA that circulate in the mother's blood.
- Quake's team demonstrated the accuracy of the new genetic test in a small study involving 18 women.
- Quake said the new test could be widely available in two or three years, and could become a routine prenatal test of a baby's health. Quake said the next step is a larger study involving hundreds of women. Stanford University has filed a patent on the test and two companies are negotiating for the licensing rights, Quake said. He said he is has been hired as a consultant for both companies, which he declined to identify.
- San Diego-based Sequenom Inc (SQNM) is also working on a Down's syndrome blood test using a different approach.
In assessing the state of the market for the next few quarters, I want to find companies with low debt, very little exposure to the economy, and a potential customer base with deep pockets, providing essential services - that has nothing to do with "global growth". This limits the candidates if you are looking for "growth" - but Sequenom is one. So despite being a company that, in between news flow, could trade randomly I am adding more here in the lower $20s range to make this a 6.2% stake. Less positions and higher concentrations will lead to more volatility for the fund, but it is what it is. I don't know if this is a viable competition or not, but even if it is, Sequenom will be to market by end of 2009 to mid 2010, whereas this new product is at its baby steps. Based on the licensing agreements that look to be required it will not only not lack first mover advantage, it will cost significantly more. We'll know by 2013 if it's a viable threat I suppose.
Long Sequenom in fund and personal account
3 comments:
Unrelated to SQNM, what do you think about today's downgrade of solars? Thanks.
Hi Bowler
there is a piece I wrote nearly a year ago titled "The long term in solar" - you can search in upper left box for that piece
basically this analyst says what my fear is for the "long run" but right now its overblown
ITaly is reducing incentives but a host of other European countries are taking its place i.e. Italy for one
and finally the US is on the bandwagon
and China has yet to begin
in the long run China and US will be the important markets
Now, i will say this sector is going to consolidate severely as there are too many players but someone like a FSLR would be one of the ultimate winners over the next few years.
The timing is very curious to me. No incentive issue just came out and in fact the US situation got much better last Friday with the inclusion of 8 years of subsidies in the bailout bill.
My main worry with solar in the near term is the lack of capital - its capital intensive and if credit markets stay broken into mid 09 this could create issues down the road.
But the scenario the analyst points out is a bit priced in, I mean most of these stocks trade at single digit multiples now - not FSLR and SPWR which have been enjoying a "US premium"
Hi Mark
Thanks for the great explanation.
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