Amazing to watch so many stocks now move in daily increments of 15-20% as if they are all penny stocks. Buying anything and holding for more than a daytrade is an invitation to get fingers cut off... quite relentless of a beating for this stock market. These constant 4%+ moves are simply amazing. Losing 8-10% in 2 sessions on the entire index is the new normal.
- Sam Zell's Equity International increased its stake in Gafisa SA, Brazil's second-largest real estate developer, to 18.7 percent.
- The fund recently acquired 3.3 million American depositary receipts issued by Gafisa, equivalent to 5 percent of outstanding shares, Sao Paulo-based Gafisa said in a regulatory filing. Gafisa shares are down 49 percent so far this year
[Nov 19: Initiating a Position in Gafisa - Brazilian Homebuilder]
No position but one day will return to Gafisa
1 comments:
I commented on a SeekingAlpha article along the lines of "Buy Brazil Now, It's the only Bric that will actually do well in this economy." The author went on to explain why the other three will not do well. My comment was basically that Brazil has a very vibrant economy and great prospect for the future, but it is commodity driven. Until the US picks up, the rest of the world will suffer along. Even Tim Seymore of Fast Money fame is arguing for shorting foreign markets.
I do feel that if you find a company that caters to the internal markets of either Brazil or China and does not have exposure to external forces, that it would be a good company to buy. Unfortunately, based on recent articles, the housing boom in Brazil is a byproduct of Petrobras' growth. In a market where oil is down to $67 a barrel, and where the government is looking to socialize the company, it seems to me that there are too many reasons to suspect that their real-estate market too will tumble. Similarly, the Chinese real estate bubble seems to have popped as their growth machine is slowing.
I got stopped out on HOGS again today, (Partly todays market drop, but also as noted in Interfax's China Business News, there's a glut of pork in China and prices are dropping.) Still, here's a highly rated company, with excellent numbers, no debt, a new factory which comes online November, increasing their production by 40% and no competition. Find something like that in Brazil and let me know....
jegan
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