Now in full disclosure, while I can't short individual names, this would be one name I *would* of shorted if I *could* short but I would of covered far higher than here (the $20s would of been fine!). It is just amazing to see the total annihilation of some stocks that have nothing to do with banking, or housing or auto, etc. For whatever reason I have a fascination with Vegas because it pretty much is a city built on an era of American excess and is THE proxy of the consumer culture. Vegas is sort of a national canary in the coal mine for the weakness in the US consumer, so that's why I've focused on it constantly in the blog.As I said countless times - anything to do with consumer discretionary in the US that does not cater to the top 0.5% or the bottom barrel budget areas is going to be in big trouble. It appears the market has come to that conclusion after denying it through 2007 and much of 2008. That said, I am aghast at this chart.
Ironically all the pundits who screamed that the U.S. consumer "would be back" once gas dropped below $3 (when it was $4) and it's time to pile into consumer discretionary stocks, are nowhere to be found now that we're here at $2.50.... I guess the problems were a bit more "widespread" than just gasoline prices.... (ahem) [2nd half 2008 recovery anyone?]
[Oct 3, 2007: A Top in Casino Names? Wynn and Las Vegas Sands]
[Nov 1, 2007: China Can't Save Las Vegas Sands - It's Getting Crox'd]
[Jul 11: Gaming Stocks Absolutely Destroyed Yesterday]
No position
5 comments:
My LVS trade was poetry in motion! ;) I banked coin on the long side, and now it's a $4 stock. lol. Back then, though, fundamentals still meant something. Now, everything has been taken to the woodshed. Even on a day like today when we're up 890 points, it's nothing compared to the damage that was incurred over the past several months.
BTW, I bought more EXM today.
I'm waiting for your 5% SEC filing in EXM.
where do you hang out nowadays with your home gone?
p.s. we are all the way back to Wednesdays levels with this rally. Quite pathetic. That's on the index which is doing far better than individual stocks.
Two of the 5 biggest days on % terms in DJIA in history have been this month. That's even more sad. All the other days were 1929-1932 with 1 day in 87.
I'm close to that 5% SEC filing! haha! The shippers are pricing in a complete shutdown of global trade. Once iron ore negotiations with Vale clear up (estimated to be Nov. timeframe), the shippers should start to see the light. It's anyone's game though. We're writing history here.
Shutting down the blog was bittersweet. I don't have a forum to post my sweet lesbian pics, my music, political diatribe, and stock rantings. But it's one less stressor in my life. I'm focusing more on work - where the real $$$ is coming in. ;) Basically letting a lot of positions ride. I still follow all the usual blogs, though.
The Big Picture has a nice chart showing consumer sentiment over time. We're at the lowest low since '67. In hindsight, I believe this will be seen as the biggest buying opportunity of a lifetime. But that's just me. Today's pop was nice, but it would have been nice to have seen more volume. There's sooooo much $$$ on the sidelines right now. I read today that over 60% in the 35-45 age group are not saving anything right now. Contributing 0 to their 401K! The article suggested they were too strapped for cash and too afraid to invest in this market. IMO, they should be buying into this maelstrom.
Cheers,
BD
PS: Vote Obama!!
LVS up 98% today! Just another day at the casino we call Wall Street. How ironic.
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