Friday, October 10, 2008

Bookkeeping: !!!!!

Posted by TraderMark at 9:49 AM TweetThis
I'm dumping a ton of short exposure and buying a lot of long exposure

The key is 3-4PM
we need to see those redemptions stopping - otherwise a tough Monday

Posted by TraderMark at 9:49 AM Comments (7) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

7 comments:

Solar flyer said...

looked like a capitulation bottom but I'm not convinced yet. lightening a little on shorts.

October 10, 2008 10:54 AM  
TraderMark said...

I'm not trying to call a bottom; just avoid a lot of the carnage. Again a lot of "traders" seem to read the blog and I always get comments from people with 8 positions versus what I'm doing. You guys can be totally in and out of positions by the minute. Different situation here.

LIBOR overnight rates finally had a huge improvement and this weekend the powers that be will guarantee all interbank loans

problem is Morgan Stanley and Goldman and those types - and the rating agencies are pouring gasoline on the fire while being asleep on the job for half a decade

we'll see how bad the selling is at 3-4 PM.

Most of the stuff I'm buying has not been going down much even on the worse days of late - so I think the hedge funds are almost out of merchandise of these things.

On the positive side the Dow can only go down 11 more times at rate of 700 pts and then its 0.

October 10, 2008 11:05 AM  
nomar5better2 said...

Is monday a trading day?

October 10, 2008 11:28 AM  
Solar flyer said...

sorry to be irritating - I'm really interested to hear your take on it.

Amazing what GS has done.

October 10, 2008 11:59 AM  
TraderMark said...

2 things
#1 people come to the blog usually as individual investors with their own small portfolio and read into what I'm doing over what they are doing with maybe 5-8 stocks. Totally different approaches

#2 this market has reduced everyone to market timing. 99.99999% of people can't do that well. I don't. I don't want to. I don't care to. I like to find stocks that have great growth potential and are undervalued. That's my long term focus and sweet spot. But for now I'm trying to avoid some risk and "market time" - I can be wrong 50% of the time. So you can you. Another reader told me yesterday I should lighten up all my short exposure into the close. Now another reader says they don't trust today's bottom. You can imagine my emails. Etc etc.

The point is I have no idea where the market will be in 30 minutes or 3 days - we're all in the same boat. Further, if I had a $250M mutual fund I cannot do 80% of the things you guys are doing with 8 stock positions and churning and jumping in and out. So be cognizant of that. I am trying to manage this in a manner similar to how I'd run a good sized fund. So I'm not going to have every position on a 3% stop loss, and trade in and out or be 80% short or any of those things.

I am not picking on you but I am just saying readers need to be aware what I am doing, and my goals and how I have to "manage". It is very different from a "private investor" who is trading daily, weekly, completely in and out of positions etc. Further, who the heck knows where the market will be - there are 1000s of forces at work here, 999 we never know about. If ABC hedge fund implodes today we could be down 10% by 4 PM> If not, we could be up 5%. Technical analysis is quite useless even now. Its all about sentiment and confidence.
I have no measure for that - we'll take it as it comes.

Again, not picking on you. 98% of the time over a 30 year period the market will not be like this. This is the other 2%.

October 10, 2008 12:57 PM  
Ron Sheridan said...

Hello Mark, You've heard from me several times in the last few weeks but again everyday, I'm here.
I'm also in the market. I liquidated nearly .5 mil(some of which was put here.. for your ? fund. Then, you went long with your fund, reducing 'your' personal risk.)

What I failed to say weeks ago, is that I'm now only putting money with a fund with Brains. ....AND Guts. Common guy, your certainly have more brains than any I have followed, so stand up. At this point you loose NO money. BUT you need to show you can LEAD.

You know, when the going gets tough phrase...?

Well, when the market was a 'discussio', you were there.

I am personally jumping in at this point, on my own. Some companies CAN NOT GO AWAY AND THEY ARE ON FIRESALE PRICES.

I'd love to have your brilliance but do not wish to be in your 80 hr. work week, to do it for myself, but you seem uncertain as to "be there"!! Come on Guy!! I don't want a gambler, but yes, a risk taker basing moves on representative information. (Gambler TAKES the odds- Risk taker works them to his/her advantage---then MOVES.)

You say: "hey are doing with maybe 5-8 stocks. Totally different approaches".

This IS a concern of mine for a time, that you can plan. NOW, planning done, Please show you can react...same as my other funds.

#2 on your comment: "Market Timing?" Are you kidding? Do you really think there will be NO FUTURE? WE are near DEPRESSION numbers, and you say it's 'Timing'?

Forget where the market will be in 3 hours, 3 days or 3 months.
You live in OUR world and it is NOT going away. Buy into this idea. The companies YOU can suggest on your wish-list, will show whether or not you can run into a fire and come out, and save your crew.

If you are not IN at this point, "who" is market timing?

ron

ron, ex-NYC firefighter

October 10, 2008 3:17 PM  
TraderMark said...

Hey Ron

Sorry I missed you - I've been bombared with people of late so have been missing quite a few. Shoot me an email, if you already have not - the address is in the upper right - and ask me any questions. I dont know what you mean by I reduced my personal risk.

October 10, 2008 4:03 PM  

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