Sunday, October 26, 2008

Bookkeeping: Closing Thoratec (THOR) First Thing Tomorrow

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From the category of when it rains, it tsunami's - one of only 2-3 stocks in our entire portfolio that have held up, Thoratec (THOR) put out a press release after the bell Friday that wear and fatigue on its heart pump may require surgical replacement and could be fatal.
  • Shares of Thoratec Corp (THOR) lost more than half their value after the cardiac device maker said wear and fatigue related to its implanted heart pump may require surgical replacement that could potentially be fatal.
  • The company initiated a worldwide medical-device correction of certain batches of the pump after 27 confirmed reports of damage to the percutaneous lead that required pump replacement.
  • In five of these cases, patients expired as a pump replacement was not feasible, the company said in a statement.
  • Thoratec had won U.S. regulatory approval for the device, HeartMate II Left Ventricular Assist System, in April. The device is designed for people with severe congestive heart failure and few medical options.
Heartmate II was essentially their driver and the reason the stock had a stunningly good quarter last time around, and had excellent prospects ahead. [Aug 4: One for the Radar - Thoratec] Well that is now toast - they have a conference call slated Monday but I'm having none of it - I will sell with the lemmings Monday and we're done with it. The thesis is destroyed here, and if this is a $5 stock or a $15 stock - irrelevant at this point. Management credibility broken here, and litigation process will be started imminently.

We actually had a profit on this position even in the pathetic mess of a market. That will be gone. I'm estimating our 2.4% position will be cut by 50% immediately Monday morning based on the after market quote on Thoratec (THOR), so our gain Friday will turn into an immediate $10K loss Monday. Can't do much about this one; I remember the havoc done to Medtronic (MDT) a few years ago when their much broader portfolio was hit with similar worries and the stock was hit quite hard - this is much worse from the perspective this is a very narrow portfolio of products that just was called into serious question. Even if worries prove to be overblown in the long run; a dark cloud will hang over THOR for a long time.

Just awful luck on top of everything else. Usually such bad news is precipitated by the stock selling off as "someone is tipped off" as almost always happens on Wall Street - this was one well kept secret as the stock was showing unusual strength considering the market. A conference call is slated Monday 8:30 AM - I just hope they say enough that the stock is not down 60-80% and only down 50%.

Long Thoratec in fund; no personal position (will be exiting Monday AM)


7 comments:

minaccess said...

This is very unusual that a small medical company has 5 patients die (and presumably multiple other patients notified) due to a problem and it did not leak. You have so many people involved (5 families dealing with the death, the whole medical community, attorneys, the company, etc.).

shaxmatist said...

Thanks for reminding me why I dont invest in biotech....

jegan said...

Just caught Thor on the premarket tape .. looks like getting out was a good idea. Down again today.

Sohu is doing well for me today.. Watched the tape state that its advertising income was way up as a result of the Olympics.. Now I have to decide if I want to ride it up, or dump it with a 5% bump.... Hope BIDU gets a ride off this news..

jegan

TraderMark said...

shax, not a biotech - its medical device

jegan, it was not down "again" - it was down after hours Friday and this morning down a lot less.

As for SOHU, BIDU and all those - again its just daytrading and not something I can participate in. Until something can hold a bid and advance over a period of weeks it's impossible to invest. 1-3 day holding periods are not really my thing.

jegan said...

TM.. I understand.. I don't follow THOR, just recognized it as a ticker you blogged about. In fact, I don't even know what time I say the news about SOHU and THOR.. Suspect it was 4 AM-ish West Coast time.

And I do understand your being a fund. Not sure how you do it. Hard to tell what anything is going to do on a weekly basis... But SOHU does look like it is trading between $46 and $57... Which is where I get off!

By the way.. I pulled up HEV on a scan for low Beta stocks (I was looking for stocks moving up irrespective of the S&P) that are beating their indeces. On a daily it is (was?) above MA20 and MA50. It's a newer stock and doesn't have much of track record. But it's earning growth is exceptional. Proprietary lithium batteries with connections to auto and govt. Maybe it doesn't work for you here, but it might be worth keeping on your radar.

Anyway.. Great Blog.. Like your commentary... jegan

TraderMark said...

And there goes SOHU down 2%

from +5% to -2% in hours

As I wrote today - I'd normally be buying but since news only keeps up stock for a few hours why bother - yet another example.

You can only daytrade now - nothing else.

jegan said...

Yep! Thar she blows! Aye Capn'..Tis Moby SOHU! Th' great white whale! Shall we chase her into the deeps?!?

Well, it was nice to see it go up 5%... Kinda made me warm all over for about 15 minutes...

jegan

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