Friday, October 3, 2008

Bookkeeping: Adding to Solar Names for a Trade

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I still have 3 solar names (I guess 1 will do since they all trade together) but for now I've added to all 3 for trading purposes only as a proxy on a near term rally in the indexes. I remain a very short term bull with multiple "let's save the system" catalysts potentially coming in the next 1-7 days and sentiment very poor. But all these are trades, not investments - all are well below resistance and I'll sell all 3 on any run up to those levels, many of which are nearly 20% higher.
  • Trina Solar (TSL) up to a 2.4% stake
  • ReneSola (SOL) up to a 2.7% stake
  • LDK Solar (LDK) up to a 2.8% stake

I continue to be impressed with the news flow out of Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) and it's the one previous sell out of the portfolio over the past 3 months that I regret. Some more good news out of its investor day. Just not sure I need 4 solar names.

  • Mark Morelli, president and CEO noted, "We are in the final stages of site selection for a new 120 MW solar-cell manufacturing facility. We are also pleased to announce that we are accelerating the growth of our nameplate capacity to 420 MWs in fiscal year 2010 and to 720 MWs in fiscal 2011. The accelerated expansion in capacity will help us meet the growing global demand for our thin-film, flexible solar laminates earlier than we had previously forecast."
  • The company had previously planned to be at 300MW and 600MW of nameplate capacity in fiscal year 2010 and 2011, respectively. The acceleration of production capacity is being made possible by systems engineering and commitments to operational excellence including better supply chain management and improved efficiencies, throughput and yields. These expansions are expected to be funded by cash on hand and future operating cash flow. The company reiterated its commitment to have 1 GW of nameplate capability in place by fiscal 2012.
  • ECD also discussed a joint development agreement with CertainTeed that was announced earlier in the day. The company said that it will focus on the creation of next-generation solar residential roofing material incorporating UNI-SOLAR photovoltaic cells with CertainTeed roofing materials. The products are expected to be commercially available beginning in 2010.

Long all names mentioned in fund except ENER; long Trina Solar, Energy Conversion Devices, ReneSola in personal account


4 comments:

Solar flyer said...

Just curious - why not STP? Hear numerous good things about them.

I am wondering which will win - the boost from the solar ITC vs the massive contraction in the money supply - in the price of the solar names.

TraderMark said...

I've had STP in the past

There is a lot of currency risk right now due to the Euro movement that could hit multiple module makers. So I've focused on the wafer suppliers whose customers are mostly in country, hence no currency risk. The one exception is Trina Solar which is valued at about 20% of Suntech Power.

Willy said...

Any reason SOL is selling off so hard today?

TraderMark said...

JASO had a poor report

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