James River Coal (JRCC) has held $19 in each of the past 5 days and performed much better than the other coal names yesterday which were beaten senseless. I added more this morning (for a trade) over $20. With the 200 day moving average @ $26, I'll be selling a large batch in the $25s. I've made a bunch of purchases in the $20s -$21s range this week. JRCC is now up to a 5.4% stake.
Remember to not get excited about any strong commodities movement over the coming days. As I've repeated for months now, they are now no different than banks last winter. They have traumatic selloffs, and then will have some huge oversold rallies - that must be sold. If there is a 7-15 day rally anytime in the future (I'm not counting on it but just saying) people will get overconfidant, say we overstated the global slowdown thesis and start piling back at the wrong time. Just like each time banks last winter and spring, sold off 60% in 2 months and then rallied 35% in 2 weeks we were told "the bottom is in financials and the worst is behind us". The parallels will be identical. As far as I'm concerned all these stocks could now be called "Citigroup Coal" circa January 2008. At some point it will be wrong to sell them on a rebound but with the "global slowdown thesis" now firmly entrenched most likely that point will be latter 2009. So just like the banks last winter and spring - they are ok to trade but dangerous to hold for long periods. That did change for some banks this summer, and that will change for commodities at some point in the future as well. But as with all things, it's a matter of timing. Until that "change in attitude" towards the group comes, they are just trading vehicles. It will be very apparent on the charts - just like some banks finally jumped over and above the 200 day moving average a few months ago - and held it, we want to see the same in any commodity before trusting it. That is, judging from the charts, eons away.
We are really down to only 5 "global growth/commodity" stocks after our purging the past 3 months. 3 are in fertilizer, 1 coal, and 1 global engineering firm. I plan on lowering that even further on the next extended run up - you really only need 1 of these stocks to trade the massive moves as they all move in lockstep. Over a 5 year time frame the World of Shortages theme continues (despite the mocking) - just like those who, pointing to internet stocks performance over the previous 2 years, said in 2002 "that whole 'internet is going to change the world' was such a joke and the stocks prove that" were proven wrong over time, so will any saying commodities won't be in a multi decade bull market. Too many people, who were levered apparently beyond belief, got into this trade at the same time and took a good thesis too far, and nothing goes up in a straight line. We as American investors have very short term time frames - and for many 6 months is an eternity. My comments are multi-year and in fact multi-decade.
While it is hard to believe now sometime in the next 2-4 years the world will begin a new economic cycle upward - led by Asia (not the US) and the stocks will anticipate that ahead of time. So imagine a world in 3 years where most countries are hitting on all cycles (and the US is at least standing upright again after its credit binge), and Asian demand for resources are 10-25% higher than they were in 2005-2007. Nothing straight up, nothing straight down. This is a 20-30+ year urbanization/modernization cycle for nearly 50% of the world's population, and we just have exited stage 1. Stage 2 I believe will be even stronger and cause new levels of stress. But since we have to make money in the interim (next 12-18 months), and in stock markets 90 days is an eternity, we have to focus in other areas for now and then revisit this thesis when institutional money returns.
Long James River Coal in fund and personal account
Friday, October 3, 2008
Bookkeeping: Adding to James River Coal (JRCC)
Posted by
TraderMark
at
11:10 AM
TweetThis
TweetThis
Posted by
TraderMark
at
11:10 AM
Comments (4)
| Edit This Post |
Create A New Post
Labels: James River Coal
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Most Visited Sites
Sites I Wish I Had More Time To Read
- Newsflashr
- FinViz.com
- Zero Hedge
- Wall St Cheet Sheat
- Naked Capitalism
- Baseline Scenario
- Abnormal Returns
- TickerSpy
- Financial Armageddon
- Infectious Greed
- FT.com Alphaville.com
- 24/7 Wall Street
- The Daily Bail
- Matt Taibbi Blog
- Calculated Risk
- NYMag
- Real Clear Markets
- All About Trends
- Carpe Diem
- What's Trading
- Finz.tv
- Zentrader
- The Financial Ninja
- Daily Options Report
- Markman
- Notable Calls
- UpsideTrader
- The Smart Money Tracker
- Stock Trading to Go
- Nouriel Roubini's Blog
- Dealbreaker
- Investment Postcards
- Toro's Running of the Bulls
- Barron's Tech Trader Daily
- Market Oracle
- StraightStocks
- FINAlternatives (Hedge Funds)
- Money and Markets
- The Market Speculator
- Contrarian Profits
- Wall Street Blips
- Wall$treet Fighter
- StreetInsider Analysts News
- Blogging Stocks (AOL)
- The Daily Reckoning
- 1440 Wall Street
- HedgeFolios
- ETF Trends
- Hedge Fund Consultant Blog
- Daily Options Report
- Get Rich Slick
- Wall $treet Folly
- Guru Focus
- Fundmastery
- The Fly on the Wall
- Bill Gross PIMCO Archives
- MrSwing.com
Industry Focus Sites
- Forex Trading
- US Debt Clock
- Bloomberg Bond Yields
- List of ADRs by Country
- Mr. Copper (Kitco)
- Gas Price by State
- Mortgage Trends
- Debt Maturations
- Form 4 Oracle - Insider Filings
- Chinese Stocks
- Greentech Media
- gnuTrade
- MineWeb
- SPDR ETFs Chart
- Coal Future Pricing - Europe
- Coal Pricing - US
- Baltic Exchange Dry Index
- Solar Feeds
- The Housing Bubble
- HousingPANIC
- BusinessofVideo.com (CDNs)
Some Mutual Funds That Perk My Interest
- CGM Mutual (Kenneth Heebner)
- CGM Focus (Kenneth Heebner)
- Quaker Strategic Growth
- Loomis Sayles Mid Cap Growth
- Bridgeway Aggressive Investors
- Eaton Vance Multi Cap Growth
- Saratoga Large Cap Growth
- AFBA Five Star Large Cap
- American Century Vista
- American Century Heritage
- TCW Growth Equities
- Dynamic Power American Growth (Noah Blackstein)
- Dover Long/Short Sector Fund
Weekly Most Read
- 1: Dennis Gartman: Gold is in a "Bubble", Meredith Whitney Just Confused
- 2: George Soros Reveals Stake in Ford, Adds to Walmart, Cuts Petrobras
- 3: Potash Could be on the Verge of a Breakout
- 4: PIMCO's Bill Gross December 2009 Letter - Risk of Bubbles Rises with Low Rates
- 5: What the Heck is Going on During Mondays Lately?
- 6: Marc Faber Video - As Long as Ben Bernanke is Fed Chief, Gold will be a Good Investment
- 7: Fund Performance Period 11
- 8: Tim Geithner Under Fire Videos
- 9: Time - 5 Things America Can Learn from China
Archives By Date
-
►
2009(1913)
-
►
11/22 - 11/29(7)
- The Most Controversial Issue in the World this Wee...
- Bookkeeping: Selling Index Calls as S&P Approaches...
- LDK Solar (LDK) Kicks off Speculation Week with a ...
- Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year...
- Doctor Devi Shetty, India's Henry Ford of Heart Su...
- Updated Position Sheet
- Natural Gas Down 12% on the Month; True Indicator ...
-
►
11/15 - 11/22(34)
- What the Heck is Going on During Mondays Lately? A...
- NYT: With FHA Help, Easy Loans in Expensive Areas;...
- Bookkeeping: Cutting Back Perfect World (PWRD) on ...
- "Houston, We Have a (Russell 2000) Problem"
- Tim Geithner Under Fire (Videos)
- PIMCO's Bill Gross December 2009 Letter : Risk of ...
- Bookkeeping: Beginning Starter Stake in Ctrip.com ...
- More Homes in the US in Delinquency or Foreclosure...
- Bookkeeping: Selling Index Longs as S&P Breaks 110...
- John Paulson Set to Launch Gold (GLD) Hedge Fund
- Infectious Greed: Detroit v Rest of US in Unemploy...
- Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO: “Yesterday’s Subprime is ...
- Bookkeeping: Stopped Out of E-House Holdings (EJ) ...
- S&P 1100 Current Pivot Point
- Best Performing Stocks of the Decade: 1900% to 790...
- Minyanville.: Our Economy is on Steroids
- Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) Potential Bre...
- Marc Faber: As Long as Ben Bernanke is Fed Chief, ...
- Still All Good for the Bulls - Quiet Consolidation...
- USA Today: China Pushes Solar, Wind Development
- Potash (POT) Could be on the Verge of a Breakout
- George Soros Reveals Stake in Ford (F), Adds to Wa...
- Bookkeeping: Rebuilding E-House Holdings (EJ) Posi...
- Dennis Gartman: Gold (GLD) is in a "Bubble" - Mere...
- Bookkeping: Stopped Out of E-House Holdings (EJ) S...
- It's Raining Silver (SLV)! Alleluiah!
- Interview with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined ...
- Time: 5 Things America Can Learn from China
- Bookkeeping: Adding to CNinsure (CISG)
- New Highs for the S&P 500; Dollar Crushed - Ground...
- Perfect World (PWRD) Beats Solidly on Earnings, Of...
- Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year...
- Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit G...
- Updated Position Sheet
-
►
11/08 - 11/15(38)
- Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Mumbai to join New York, Lond...
- US Dollar Falls Intraday; Traders Scramble to Buy ...
- CNBC: Ron Paul - Fix the Fed (Video)
- Ordos - China's Empty City
- NYT: Rural India Gets Chance at Piece of Job Boom
- Pledge Update November 2009
- "Double Top" for Now
- Apple's (AAPL) iPhone Applications Take Root as a ...
- Wall St. Cheat Sheet Interviews Jim Rogers
- ► 11/01 - 11/08(38)
- ► 10/25 - 11/01(48)
- ► 10/18 - 10/25(37)
- ► 10/11 - 10/18(40)
- ► 10/04 - 10/11(35)
- ► 09/27 - 10/04(41)
- ► 09/20 - 09/27(39)
- ► 09/13 - 09/20(35)
- ► 09/06 - 09/13(32)
- ► 08/30 - 09/06(32)
- ► 08/23 - 08/30(34)
- ► 08/16 - 08/23(36)
- ► 08/09 - 08/16(39)
- ► 08/02 - 08/09(40)
- ► 07/26 - 08/02(45)
- ► 07/19 - 07/26(45)
- ► 07/12 - 07/19(45)
- ► 07/05 - 07/12(40)
- ► 06/28 - 07/05(31)
- ► 06/21 - 06/28(37)
- ► 06/14 - 06/21(44)
- ► 06/07 - 06/14(42)
- ► 05/31 - 06/07(44)
- ► 05/24 - 05/31(39)
- ► 05/17 - 05/24(33)
- ► 05/10 - 05/17(39)
- ► 05/03 - 05/10(47)
- ► 04/26 - 05/03(45)
- ► 04/19 - 04/26(43)
- ► 04/12 - 04/19(40)
- ► 04/05 - 04/12(40)
- ► 03/29 - 04/05(40)
- ► 03/22 - 03/29(45)
- ► 03/15 - 03/22(45)
- ► 03/08 - 03/15(46)
- ► 03/01 - 03/08(49)
- ► 02/22 - 03/01(49)
- ► 02/15 - 02/22(45)
- ► 02/08 - 02/15(49)
- ► 02/01 - 02/08(49)
- ► 01/25 - 02/01(49)
- ► 01/18 - 01/25(38)
- ► 01/11 - 01/18(53)
- ► 01/04 - 01/11(52)
-
►
11/22 - 11/29(7)
-
▼
2008(2199)
- ► 12/28 - 01/04(27)
- ► 12/21 - 12/28(25)
- ► 12/14 - 12/21(41)
- ► 12/07 - 12/14(39)
- ► 11/30 - 12/07(34)
- ► 11/23 - 11/30(31)
- ► 11/16 - 11/23(33)
- ► 11/09 - 11/16(33)
- ► 11/02 - 11/09(33)
- ► 10/26 - 11/02(43)
- ► 10/19 - 10/26(35)
- ► 10/12 - 10/19(34)
- ► 10/05 - 10/12(38)
-
▼
09/28 - 10/05(40)
- Credit Crisis Sharpens Anger Over CEO Pay
- Bookkeeping: 'Rising Tide' Performance Year 2, Wee...
- Bookkeeping: Closing Blackrock (BLK)
- Constellation Energy (CEG) Appears to be Back in P...
- Bookkeeping: Initiating BB&T (BBT)
- 11 Points to the Line in the Sand
- Bookkeeping: Adding to Solar Names for a Trade
- Hedge Funds Have Worst Month on Record
- Bookkeeping: Adding to James River Coal (JRCC)
- Bookkeeping: Adding to A-Power Energy (APWR)
- Wells Fargo (WFC) Swoops in to Steal Wachovia (WB)...
- This Must be an (Intermediate) Bottom
- NYTimes: As Credit Crisis Spiraled, Alarm Led to A...
- Bookkeeping: Closing Ralph Polo Lauren (RL) and Pa...
- Bookkeeping: Starting PNC Financial Services (PNC)...
- Review of 3rd Quarter 2008 Sales
- Jim Rogers Latest - Bailout Would Only Prolong Cri...
- Market Hates Mosaic (MOS) - Phosphates Not Up to S...
- Bookkeeping: Beginning Portfolio Recovery Associat...
- Buffet Strikes Again - this time into General Elec...
- Reuters: 1 in 5 Auto Dealers Could go Under by 200...
- Wells Fargo (WFC) Still Waiting for the Right Deal...
- Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide
- Roubini on the Bailout - Thumbs Down
- Market Madness
- BB&T (BBT) CEO Slams Bailout
- Birmingham News: Regions Financial (RF) "Guilt by ...
- Analyst Keep Trying to Defend Mosaic (MOS)
- EZCORP (EZPW) is on Fire Lately
- I Missed Wells Fargo (WFC) Again
- Bookkeeping: Closing Fluor (FLR)
- Go Figure
- Bookkeeping: Buying more James River Coal (JRCC) a...
- Bookkeeping: Can't Afford to get "Wachovia'd" - Cu...
- Interested in Joy Global (JOYG) Under $42 But...
- Barron's: The Pain of Deleveraging
- About that Bailout Rally....
- Citigroup (C) & Wells Fargo (WFC) Bidding for Wach...
- Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Year...
- 27 Stocks Returning 6%+ this Week
- ► 09/21 - 09/28(46)
- ► 09/14 - 09/21(52)
- ► 09/07 - 09/14(49)
- ► 08/31 - 09/07(36)
- ► 08/24 - 08/31(43)
- ► 08/17 - 08/24(48)
- ► 08/10 - 08/17(50)
- ► 08/03 - 08/10(46)
- ► 07/27 - 08/03(46)
- ► 07/20 - 07/27(49)
- ► 07/13 - 07/20(48)
- ► 07/06 - 07/13(52)
- ► 06/29 - 07/06(42)
- ► 06/22 - 06/29(47)
- ► 06/15 - 06/22(41)
- ► 06/08 - 06/15(39)
- ► 06/01 - 06/08(36)
- ► 05/25 - 06/01(30)
- ► 05/18 - 05/25(39)
- ► 05/11 - 05/18(40)
- ► 05/04 - 05/11(41)
- ► 04/27 - 05/04(48)
- ► 04/20 - 04/27(44)
- ► 04/13 - 04/20(48)
- ► 04/06 - 04/13(41)
- ► 03/30 - 04/06(54)
- ► 03/23 - 03/30(41)
- ► 03/16 - 03/23(47)
- ► 03/09 - 03/16(32)
- ► 03/02 - 03/09(44)
- ► 02/24 - 03/02(54)
- ► 02/17 - 02/24(40)
- ► 02/10 - 02/17(57)
- ► 02/03 - 02/10(57)
- ► 01/27 - 02/03(49)
- ► 01/20 - 01/27(48)
- ► 01/13 - 01/20(46)
- ► 01/06 - 01/13(43)
-
►
2007(913)
- ► 12/30 - 01/06(33)
- ► 12/23 - 12/30(29)
- ► 12/16 - 12/23(39)
- ► 12/09 - 12/16(36)
- ► 12/02 - 12/09(33)
- ► 11/25 - 12/02(44)
- ► 11/18 - 11/25(25)
- ► 11/11 - 11/18(44)
- ► 11/04 - 11/11(54)
- ► 10/28 - 11/04(51)
- ► 10/21 - 10/28(57)
- ► 10/14 - 10/21(55)
- ► 10/07 - 10/14(57)
- ► 09/30 - 10/07(55)
- ► 09/23 - 09/30(41)
- ► 09/16 - 09/23(41)
- ► 09/09 - 09/16(37)
- ► 09/02 - 09/09(31)
- ► 08/26 - 09/02(44)
- ► 08/19 - 08/26(43)
- ► 08/12 - 08/19(37)
- ► 08/05 - 08/12(27)









4 comments:
This rather interesting .. Being a 'darling' of the coal stocks for so long:
Patriot Coal Corp said its third-quarter production fell 1.4 million tons short of its earlier forecast and warned that its net income for the period would be hurt by the shortfall.
The company, which produced 8 million tons of coal in the quarter, also said it planned to revise its 2008 outlook during its quarterly earnings release in October.
Patriot Coal blamed a shortage of skilled workers in underground mines, difficult geologic conditions and downtime due to increased inspections from the Mine Safety and Health Administration for the shortfall in production.
And, I'm sure you know about the environmental suit in W. Virginia, which may shut down open surface mining. CNX has only shaft mines in the area, whereas BTU and others either have a mix, or are only surface mines.
jegan
I never quite understood the infatuation by investors in PCX versus other names
I see it is down 75% since peak
Do you like ANR again now that Harbinger has been denied? Or will you just stick with JRCC for trading?
It's all the same stock to me
coal, natural gas, oil, fertilizer, global engineering firm, etc
they all trade together so there is no longer a reason to own 2-3 when 1 will do.
Post a Comment