Thursday, October 9, 2008

Best Thing to find a Bottom Would Be....

Posted by TraderMark at 3:48 PM TweetThis
... a terrible close today, followed be a terrible gap down tomorrow morning

This is how bottoms are made - not the pull the bandaid approach we've been experiencing. Although this is quite horrific and beyond any standard deviation out there. 9% down day just recently and currently another 7.5%ish down day. 10 minutes to go and who will step up and be a buyer here. Nobody.

I will post today's performance around 4:30 PM; I broke my own self imposed rules of 0-25% short range this morning, and went close to 40% - along with selling off a lot of long exposure as I wrote. Historical times require historical measures. I think on this one day we'll make up a huge amount versus the indexes, which we needed as we've been having a hard time staying ahead of the averages.

I'll update at 4:30 PM how we did; now the only question is whether to sell any short exposure into the close - my gut says "no" simply because I cannot justify a premarket gain tomorrow by any means possible as the "government" has employed every measure possible short of closing the market. The market will find its level on its own it appears.

Posted by TraderMark at 3:48 PM Comments (3) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

3 comments:

Solar flyer said...

Did not sell my short exposure today. Hope (and pray, no atheists in the pit!) that tomorrow is it.

October 9, 2008 4:51 PM  
shaxmatist said...

I bought into the close today... good move with the shorts in the morning, but I think you should have covered.

October 9, 2008 4:56 PM  
TraderMark said...

You also told me to keep RIO at 28 ;)
It was single digits? today? near it

You have a 50% chance of being correct, and so do I. Guessing the market movement is a fool's game. But that's all the market has become of late.

If I give back 7% tomorrow on the open that's ok, I out did the index by 17.5%ish today. If the market opens down 2-3% I'll make up for 3 months of crud in 48 hours. So we'll see - and neither of us has a clue.

October 9, 2008 5:09 PM  

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