Friday, October 24, 2008

As We Said Yesterday

Posted by TraderMark at 9:43 AM TweetThis
860...840... then 2002 (around 770 on the S&P 500)

Obviously we will have some wicked volatility here but I don't expect anyone to be buying (for holding) ahead of a weekend with 'Black Monday' talk that will reigning the airwaves this weekend.

I'm sure we'll hear of some hedge funds blowing up again - there appeared to be no catalyst for this morning's carnage (UK GDP poor, we know that - Japanese exports poor, we know that)

The irony is that the two world currency's offering the lowest rates are both spiking which simply tells you we are unwinding positions in hedge funds all over the place. They "borrowed cheap, to buy" meaning for a long time they were borrowing Japanese yen at very low interest rates to lever up and buy buy buy. The fact the yen is now spiking with the dollar says to me a lot of positions are being unwound and hard. As if it were not obvious.

So expect a hard core rally sometime during the day but as I've been saying when the entire market can go down 3% in 30 minutes due to some unknown hedge fund imploding there is no place to put long term buys in here. I'd expect some stand to be put in at intraday lows of Oct 10th which is that S&P 840ish level; we'll see how many buyers attempt that. There is simply no place for investors right now to enter - only daytraders.

Posted by TraderMark at 9:43 AM Comments (9) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

9 comments:

Risk Manager Jeff said...

mark, i know i said that there was some glimpse of the marking doing something that made sense last week, but i repent that statement.

todays initial selling seemed more pointless than usual.

did the ROW really think that the US grinding to an absolute halt would not impact them?

the hedge funds continue to puke, and I think we are startng to see that in mutual funds. maybe we get a tradable xmas rally.. as its going to take the first part of Q4 to flush out.

PS - is opec insane?

October 24, 2008 11:12 AM  
Stonefoxcapital said...

amazed that 860 basically held. Will be interesting to see how the market moves forward. Too many people are now use to a market that basically doesn't go up. 10 years of no gains in the US and most emerging markets have given up all the gains from the last 5-6 yrs. Sure argues for a slow recovery. Only after the markets up 30% will the real money flood in late to the game as usual.

October 24, 2008 11:50 AM  
bowler2005 said...

Mark,

My understanding of yen carry trade unwinding (hedge fund unwinding) is hedge funds sell dollars to buy yen to repay the borrowed yen. If they are selling dollar, why the dollar is so strong of late.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

October 24, 2008 12:25 PM  
TraderMark said...

The dollars strength while gold is weak during a time gold bugs have been waiting for is a topic of debate.

some call it a flight of safety
some say its a sign of deflation - as dollars are destroyed, each incremental remaining dollar is worth a big more

could be a combination of the two. It appears every asset class is undergoing deflation incl gold so I'd lean towards that explanation.

October 24, 2008 12:34 PM  
Risk Manager Jeff said...

Bowler, at the same time, currencies in countries with a commodity backbone, are crumbling.. so the dollar is strong wrt to them.. and the yen is really really strong.

October 24, 2008 12:35 PM  
NL Thinker said...

but not only dollars are destroyed ,but other currencies too... so they should counter rally by the same argument?
I think people will flee the US dollar once the US is destroyed enough, as i would think more of these misdealings were going down in the US than other places?
and US will keep having to print money to stay afloat...

October 24, 2008 3:04 PM  
Risk Manager Jeff said...

we could be getting an implosion in the latin america area, so thats killing anything related there.. hence its real weakness. playing those areas was a global growth trade, financed with Yen.. so its all unwinding... latin america down alot, unwinding to USD unwinding to YEN. its hard to hold anything here, except for maybe wallmart, where a metldown in latin america will make for some really cheap imports.

October 24, 2008 3:37 PM  
bowler2005 said...

Thanks Mark & Jeff

October 24, 2008 3:50 PM  
jegan said...

The best line I've heard in weeks was when 'Fast Money's' Dylan Ratigan asked Jeffe Macke what positions he was in and he responded "Dylan Ratigan.... There are only two positions in this market.. Cash and fetal!"..

jegan

October 24, 2008 4:44 PM  

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