Friday, September 19, 2008

Wow

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I thought last week with Frannie and Freddie was historic. That now seems quaint.

The number of measures announced last night and this morning are too numerous to document - you can hit CBSMarketwatch.com or CNBC.com for a list of the multiple actions taken - just be assured that all risk is being taken away from the financial companies in America and given to the American taxpayer under the guise of "well there is a good chance the US taxpayer makes a profit!" Obviously no private party was willing to make that bet on profit but we are being asked to.

I think the final straw was the run on money market funds by institutions - you know the "calm" ones (I say that in regards to how the conventional wisdom is the small retail investor is the one that panics - look whose talking). I really am simply amazed at the past year, the past month, the past two weeks, the past week, and the past 24 hours. Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard Funds, and in the business nearly 60 years was on CNBC this morning saying he has seen nothing like this. The only question I ask is "if things are so fine" as we were assured, why the historic actions? Obviously things were not fine, nor near fine.

Now after the euphoria runs out, will people ask "why" were these steps necessary? That's the same question I asked after the Bear Stearns bailout. Remember, we were assured "it cannot get worse than this" and "the bottom is in financials". That didn't work out so well.

However, this time we have taken it to another level. We won't be doing a RTC type of bailout in my mind because in that instrument we took over failing financial institutions. This is more similar to the 1932 version (that's Great Depression era action) where we have the banks offload their toxic items to the American taxpayer. But don't worry - as long as we hold it until "calmer" times we'll make a mint off this transaction. Nothing is free in life - there is a cost in the long run for our "stock market victories" in the short run. The potential obligations of the American taxpayer continue to skyrocket. But purely from a Wall Street view that does not matter - risk has been offloaded away from Wall Street and into another entity. So that's a very large net positive.

Looking at the S&P 500 open as we near S&P 1250, we have rallied 7.3% in 1 HOUR since 3 PM yesterday.

As I said yesterday, "they" went one step too far - you do not mess with Goldman Sachs. Period. President Paulson... err Treasury Secretary Paulson showed them. I can only imagine how this would of worked out if it were Secretary O'Neil or Secretary Snow at the helm today.

Historic times. Head shaking times.

9 comments:

Walt said...

it's good to have friends in places

ps i was just messing with you on taking 2 hrs lunch break.

walt.

Guy said...

Hi TM:

Look at the Jim Bunning interview on Bloomberg; I always thought Bunning was useless, but now he is the only one talking sense.

Note in the interview that the reporter buys into the line of thinking that everyone else has done: they are too big too fail. And Bunning actually refutes this. Once again this idea of they are too big too fail is BS. If AIG fails life will go on today like it did yesterday and someone will come along tomorrow with a better idea.

Wez said...

So what are you thinking Mark, have you got rid of all your short ETFs? How long does this false rally last?

John said...

Heebner - "30% Financials" in the focus fund- I hope he takes the opportunity to lighten up and layer back in at lower prices if he has strong convictions about the sector, which he rarely lacks

Someone Somewhere said...

guy I couldn't agree with you more about companies being "too big to fail". Sometimes you just have to clean the weeds out of the garden. Corporate Darwinism right before our very eyes.

phil said...

I don't even want to think where we would be w/ O'Neil in there. That's really scary......

TraderMark said...

Walt,

Goldman had the ultimate contigency plan in place. Now it was time to execute it

Guy,
I think when institutions started to distrust money markets and pull money and LIBOR is off the chart and no one lends that could cause financial ruin. The institutions panicked more than the individual.

Look I'm a libertanian at heart - more by the day when I see what these 2 idiot parties are doing. I am upset at all the steps up to this and the fact a bunch of blind boozos either were blind or fought regulation every step along the way. I'm mad at all those who got rich and we're subsidizing them. But without sucking out this cancer from the system, I believe the system would break down. I just cannot believe the dollar is rallying on this increase in liabilites to the American people. I'm not happy about any of it as a citizen. But it could of been stopped at any number of places along the way - as simple as requiring every originator to take 1-2% of every loan on their balance sheet in 2003-2007 would of stopped this alone. But we are the land of "financial innovation" - MBAs souped up as car salesmen and a political party that preached every day for years on end regulation is evil. I can only imagine the outcry if Democrats were in WHite House. Republicans would hang it over their head for next 50 years.

I am also sick that so many small businesses can fail and no one gives a damn or we've outsourced most of our "production" and instead pushed capital into our financial innovators. Would a manufacturer ever do something like this and cause such harm to the entire system? What a joke.

Wez,\
In my "exasperation" piece yesterday I wrote what I did. When I saw the news I dumped out of most of my short exposure, and have started rebuying back some this morning to remain somewhat hedged.

Phil,
O'Neil got kicked out because he was honest. He wanted the administration to be truthful and put items on the budget that should be there and for that he was "ushered" out. Whatever you think of him, he struck me as an honest person. Obviously a person like that cannot operate in D.C.

TraderMark said...

John, I have a theory on Wells Fargo
I think its a top 3 position for Heebner and that is why it is so strong

word got around from the desk that did the order for Heebner, and everyone else piled in. Its been untouchable for weeks.

We'll know in mid October when his Sept 30 holdings are listed.

John said...

I like the theory, and if my cash is going to be invested in any financial institution you could pick far worse than WFC

the chart looks pretty ridiculous

kevlar kenneth?

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