Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Trina Solar (TSL) Announces Largest US Rooftop Project and some Updates on 2009

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The first news item is for show, the second news item is for dough - this has been the worst stock we've held (biggest loss) but I have not sold it off unlike most of our losers because I am convicted at some point investors will realize the tremendous earnings power in the model in the coming 2 years. I've just been wrong for a year now waiting for that time. (much of which we can thank management and their "surprises" for) Sadly the stock still trades at under 10x 2008 earnings for >100%+ growth.

Trina Solar to Power North America's Largest Single Rooftop Installation

  • Trina Solar today announced that shipments began this month to provide more than 13,400 solar PV modules to power the Atlantic City Convention Center ("ACCC"). This supply comes as part of a signed agreement with general contractor American Capital Energy, who is managing project integration and installation for Pepco Energy Services and the Atlantic City Convention & Visitors Authority ("ACCVA"). The agreement provides for up to four additional megawatts ("MW") to be supplied during 2009.
  • Once complete, the ACCC project will be North America's largest single roof-mounted solar array, with approximately 185,000 square feet of solar panels for a system size of approximately 2.4 MW. The system is expected to generate over 2.8 million kilowatt-hours of energy per year, or enough to power 280 US homes. The system is being developed under a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement with Pepco Energy Services, a subsidiary of Pepco Holdings, Inc., and will provide the ACCC with energy savings of $4.4 million over 20 years.
More important to me... Trina sees 5-6% drop in 2009 average selling price but "as much as" a 20% drop in polysilicon cost (i.e. margin expansion in 2009)
  • Trina Solar Ltd (TSL) expects its silicon costs to drop by as much as 20 percent in 2009, while the average selling price of its solar modules will fall by a more modest 5 to 6 percent, an executive said on Wednesday
  • That decline in silicon costs versus the more modest selling price decline would lead to a "a significant margin expansion," Arturo Herrero, Trina's vice president of sales and marketing, told Reuters in an interview.
  • Trina, which earlier on Wednesday announced the largest single rooftop solar project in the United States, expects 30 percent of its sales would be to Germany, compared with about 35 percent in 2008, Herrera said.
Also the US extended renewable energy tax credits late yesterday which is good for the US of A, but in the near term does not mean that much for most solar companies as very little of their business is in the US. (we are too busy "drilling baby drilling") But since US investors think the world revolves around them, it is helping sentiment this morning. Unless the market backdrop improves, I expect this "glee" to be short lived.
  • Solar power companies' shares rallied in early trading on Wednesday, the day after the U.S. Senate voted to extend tax credits worth $18 billion for renewable energy sources. The measure, which the House of Representatives and President George W. Bush are expected to approve, would give businesses a 30 percent tax credit to offset the development costs of solar and other clean energy projects.
  • Industry experts had warned that failure to extend the tax credits, which were to expire at the end of 2008, would hamper the growth of solar power, which remains more expensive than conventional electricity sources, such as coal and natural gas.
  • "We see this as an important catalyst for the entire solar and renewable energy sector, especially for solar names with residential exposure such as (SunPower)," analysts at Piper Jaffray wrote in a note to investors.
Long Trina Solar in fund and personal account


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