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Friday, September 26, 2008

Jamie Dimon, I Tip my Hat to You

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Jamie Dimon is a beast... he was spurned from top leadership at Citigroup (C) years ago and then went to JPMorgan (JPM) and look whose talking now. For a nice $31B writeoff and $2B he now owns the largest S&L in America and has branches all over the West where JPMorgan was lacking.

Now my question is, what happens if management changes at either Bank of America-Countrywide-Merill Lynch (BAC) or JPMorgan-Bear Stearns-Washingtong Mutual (JPM) and someone takes them in a very risk taking path in say a decade. If you thought ABC Bank stock was too big to fail, holy smoke. These two now dominate, along with Citigroup (C) a vast amount of our financial network. But they are smart - because if you get big you will never be allowed to fail.

There is a great divergence happening in financial landscape and today's action is really showing it

JPMorgan (JPM) +2%
Wells Fargo (WFC) +2%
PNC Financial (PNC) +1%

National City (NCC) -25% (Ohio/Midwest focused)
Wachovia (WB) -22%
Downey Financial (DSL) -31% (CA focused)
Peoples Community Bancorp (PCBI) -25% (Ohio/Indiana)

If this bill does not pass, Wachovia is the next WaMu. Downey is already a walking zombie as is Peoples Community - should be put out of its misery by FDIC on a Friday night soon.

The strong are getting stronger, and the weak weaker (keep in mind even the strong have a lot of warts but it's all relative) A landscape removed of many competitors 2 years from now will give us some nice near monopolies in banking. [Sep 15: Wilbur Ross: Possibly a Thousand Banks to Go]

I will say I am thrilled the American people have finally woken up from their slumber and finally got mad about something. I thought it was just me, and a handful of readers. I guess it takes really big numbers for them to realize what has been going on for months upon months. Each Fed cut that robs them of savings, each bailout that puts more obligations on their kids and grandkids - eventually it became enough to snatch their attention from Paris Hilton's exploits. Alleluiah.

Thought of the day - I wonder what the rest of the world is thinking as they watch this madness unfurl. "Free market capitalism devoid of regulation and only focused on maximization of profits and funneling excessive compensation to the few at the top" - I'll have a post out this weekend with the thoughts of the world...

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