Sometimes a few hours can make all the difference in the world
We entered the day today perfectly positioned for this rally - I had trimmed short exposure quite heavily since the mood was so dour, and went heavy into Ultra Financial, Lennar and Sequenom. The other reason was I was worried about a global central bank rate cut which would lift the spirits.
We got our bounce this AM but when I came back to the computer mid day it had failed. We were selling off.... I got back a lot of the short exposure as things were not looking good. I cut back on a failing Lennar wondering where did the housing rally go? I cut back on Ultra Financial dismayed by the lousy reaction today. Then we had the UK short selling ban news - but after that initial spike, especially in financials, it withered I held fast. After selling 3 positions here, I looked at my Ultra Financial in my personal account and said, "whatever". I sold it.
5 minutes later came the CNBC announcement. Perfectly positioned for it at 9:30 AM. Terribly positioned for it 5 minutes before the announcement.
I did quickly cut each and every Ultrashort ETF the minute I saw the news. But it was too late - some were -10% already. I scrambled back into the UYG and Lennar - too late - both were up 12%+ already.
The market, dependent on random news flow, continues to twist me into a pretzel and make me look idiotic. I just had to get that out there, before I run head first into the wall.
So that was my day. How was yours?
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22 comments:
I feel much like you. Having lost belief in long positions. I got into SDS 2 days ago abd there you go today it is 6% down at the end of the day. I have become a day trader for good companies like Nucor as nothing works in the market. Good or bad doesn't matter-they are all treated alike.
Went into the day with a bunch of fertilizer, coal and mining stocks, sold everything as soon as S&P dipped below zero, felt smug about it as I saw it go -3%, then got snookered by Paulson into the close.... well, at least I dont short...
So we all capitulated on the long side today? That plus the VIX at 40, maybe finally a bottom?
This is just plain crazy. I am mostly in cash and this is still very stressful. I can't see how this will mark a bottom. Govt intervention to this magnitude has to be viewed negative to the market when the dust settles. The market needs to mark a bottom on it's own. All this does is extend the bear market with more volitility. Only stock I have is GXDX and I have cash and csh vehicles like shv, iei, tlt and tip. All of my "cash" was down today.
I stuck to my VIX theory...it hasn't stayed in the 35+ range for more than 1-2 days and the 'invisible hand' was destined to bring it down. Did get scared on the UYG early but stuck with it and sold out for 12%! But we also have to add the key factor: LUCK!
I lost too much in the Jul/Aug commodity selloff. So, for now i buy UYG when below 18$ and sell above $21. Not very fun but recovering some of those loses.
Fortunately sold SKF above $146 this morning. Can't take much more of this market though. Would love to be all cash and wait it out.
Its easy to have a good day when you've been down ~40% (i've held coal, ferts, oil and solar). They've dropped so low I've got to have some good days (did I say that outloud) and today was it!
I used the up today/down tomorrow approach we discussed yday. bought ceg yday at 22 (after the huge drop) and up to ~25 today.I really thought there would be a lot more so I'm just setting a stop in hopes of a controversy.
I've been stupidly holding ctrp (down 30%) but got it all back today (+44%).
So +6% in real money acct.
+2.5% in 401(k) acct.
Thanks for asking.
What should I reverse for tomorrow?
Sold some ESLR at the first rally, dumped the rest at the close (Lehman exposure), big realized loss.
Bought a few things when the VIX spiked highest (scary so not much), sold some at the close, kept some.
So better positioned portfolio (I hope, now watch ESLR go up), nasty big loss for the day.
I got wrapped up in one of the many blow-up du jours today, STT. I was a little late to the party but managed to turn in a pretty decent profit on a trade after being down 9K after my initial buy. Thankfully I fought the urge to take the loss and held on long enough to watch it shoot back up to the 50s.
eh don't get yourself down that's just unlucky... can't do anything about the timing.
i picked up aapl around 121 as it will hopefully hold that massive level of support. same with UNG, picked some of that up with the huge support at 32/33. posted the setups on my site earlier today
worst case scenario the market pukes again and i stop out of those names. (and then flip them to shorts if the SEC hasnt banned shortselling yet...)
feels like with all the news and actions that we've hit that tradeable bottom. VIX reversed hard today.
Sorry you got spun today Mark. Vix 42 reversal @ 1pm was the tell. Keep that chart open tomorrow.
I shorted SKF 1hr early for a quick gain, but missed the massive sell off from 154. Down 10pts in one 5min bar..and then it just kept going! I took Dell long and got out. The volume was so huge today my Fidelity platform locked up on me all day long. I spent all day struggling with the PC. I tried to take GS long @ 105 (after the dip to 101) and my order window froze. I made 1/10th my profit potential today because of Fidelity Active Trader Pro issue's all day long. At least they didn't go down like TD does all the time.
The market is insane. You guys are insane. And I'm insane toooooooooooooooooo!!!! ;-)
Sometimes it isn't even a trader's market. It's crazy how things change minute to minute.
Which platforms had problems such as screen blanking or slowness due to volume and which didn't?
Guess I'll take Fidelity off my radar if i want to switch.
Have Schwab StreetSmart Pro and testing out Trade Station. Can always tell the timing of a Fed interest rate announcement on Schwab because all the screens blank. Plus it was slow on the close today. Plus they shut down in extended trading due to "technical difficulties" - direct access trading only. It's generally workable but I have to have something better.
My day was similar. Lightened up on SKF late yesterday. Felt stupid this morning when it traded up to 150. Held DXD for this reason, and regretted it in the afternoon. I'd have to say the bounce will continue based on potential short ban, but who knows?
Haven't done much of anything this week except double my UYG yesterday and bought some QQQQ calls yesterday. Been watching in awe the rest of the time. I've found in weeks like this that it is really the only thing I can do...try to ride it out. Posted similar thoughts last night. Definitely think tradeable bottom is in as well, could be temporary, but will not be selling anything tomorrow. Will at least try to wait until the S&P is back above 1250 before taking profits (or the better term is reclaimed losses from the terrible September thus far). Hang in there everybody! You are definitely not alone Mark -my account was down 12% yesterday and up 13% today...just crazy.
Parker
http://parkercapital.blogspot.com
Solar Flyer. My bro uses TD and he's had issues where TD would crash system wide for up to 1hr. So far Fidelity has never crashed, but their ATP program's streaming data capabilities are piss poor. I have a fast PC and 10mb internet, one monitor with 5 charts, 3 quotes, and a watch list up. It can't even handle that and I've been told to reduce the amount of charts I have up. What a joke! It can't handle the streaming on days like today and I can't trade waiting on 2min refreshes (no lag when u take streaming off). I spent up to 5min with total PC lock up after entering an order. It took 2min to load the data on a restart and I had 1,000 Dell long with no idea what my market order went in for at first. Imagine trading 500 GS long under these conditions which was my 2nd order that didn't go through. Oh and forget about any auto alerts. You have to manually enter them all in based on limited criteria. I simply scan charts constantly.
I hear Trade Station is excellent and options guys love ThinkorSwim (TOS).
SEC bans short selling "to protect the integrity". Are you kidding me. Change the rules of the game when you don't like the results is more like it.
Shorts will not be happy today... or people who sold their longs yesterday :( *gulp*
SKF halted today [friday] :(
bag-holding $10K today
crooked politicians protecting crooked wall-streaters who fund crooked politicians !!!!
Thanks Blue. Wondering about TOS to trade options. Not the cheapest - what about TradeKing (cheaper) or Interactive Brokers?
Anyone trade futures and have a favorite broker?
BTW, i don't trust this rally. Am selling into it and adjusting portfolio again. Plan to buy on a retest of lows or close to it.
Of course ESLR went up but no regrets. Will use the proceeds to buy something with less immediate risk.
Wild card - passage of solar ITC extension - anyone know what's happening with it and where to get minute by minute info?
Also who is best for option margin? Heard TOS has portfolio margin (use less margin since it nets your positions I think?).
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