Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Bookkeeping: Cutting Alliance Data Systems (ADS) in Half

TweetThis
Wow. I am completely flabbergasted that even stocks undertaking a massive share repurchase program, in completely boring business lines that have nothing to do with commodities or financials, cannot hold a bid. I thought Alliance Data Systems (ADS) would be a port in the storm. [Aug 29: Starting New Position: Alliance Data Systems]

Well we have to stick to our guns - we see a chart where the stock broke key support and regardless of fundamentals or backdrop we have to begin to cut back to avoid risking major damage if this is part of a new trend down. We're cutting our ADS exposure in half from 1.8% to 0.9% of the portfolio, here at $60. We'll re-enter if the stock gets back above $62. Unbelievable - even buying back 30% of your shares does not provide you the benefit of the doubt. Just last week I was so happy in the performance - the stock never wavered. So much for that. Well there is a gap back there at $52 so maybe that's the future. So $52 or $62 - whichever comes first is where we'll buy.

EDIT: Actually that looks like a double top just north of $66 which is might be very ominous. I'm cutting back to 0.1% stake until further notice. Here is another easy short entry - short at $60, stop out at $62, cover at $52. Go long at $52? Hmmm... we'll check back in the days to come. On a fundamental basis it makes little sense - but what has?

Long Alliance Data Systems in fund; no personal position

Disclaimer: The opinions listed on this blog are for educational purpose only. You should do your own research before making any decisions.
This blog, its affiliates, partners or authors are not responsible or liable for any misstatements and/or losses you might sustain from the content provided.


Site by codeeo
Original WP Premium theme by WP Remix