Friday, September 19, 2008

Bookkeeping: Closing Alpha Natural Resources (ANR)

Posted by TraderMark at 12:50 PM TweetThis
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) is my favorite coal stock based on 2009 earnings potential; we own 4. However it's stuck in a long drama with it's current merge (fighting a hedge fund to be allowed to merge of all things)

Due to the fact all 4 coal stocks basically trade together nowadays, there is no reason to own 4 unless a buyout offer happens. Since Alpha Natural Resources already has its buyout offer, obviously unless there is a second bid we are over that bridge with this name. I am surprised none of the other 3 names have had any M&A activity at these prices.

I really wish ANR had remained independent since the earnings power in 2009 will be explosive. If Harbinger Capital forces themselves in between the merger with Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) and breaks it up, I'll get back into ANR.

We've held this stock since April 08 and the leave the last 1.0% stake in the $66s with about a $9K profit. This was once a nearly $25K profit but that was back when coal stocks used to go up for more than 48 hours at a time. Those were the days...

No position

Posted by TraderMark at 12:50 PM Comments (8) | Edit This Post | Create A New Post

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8 comments:

Greg said...

Please explain to me if the deal does go through arent you guaranteed 100-120 a share, if this true, why would you sell. Now if you are trying to trade it for months I understand that.

September 19, 2008 1:10 PM  
Link McGinnis said...

Since (basically) all coals trade alike and all fertilizers trade alike, etc. I'm tempted to just trade the etf KOL, etc.
The upside: when the sector tanks or takes off it only takes one transaction and the costs associated with it.

I know that there is a potential for faster growth in one stock but who can guess that at this time?

what is the downside to just buying the etf KOL, etc.

September 19, 2008 1:21 PM  
sliman said...

Heebner was on CNBC this morning. He is 30% financials and says the profits will be huge for the remaining banks. Any comment trader or anyone else? I have bought the UYG.

September 19, 2008 1:26 PM  
Michael said...

I'm still trying to figure out how the profit for the remaining banks will be 'huge'. Sure, there are less players, but do you think they're going to be allowed to leverage up to 30:1 or more again? What about handing out home loans to anyone with a pulse (or their dog for that matter)? Obviously some banks with good balance sheets are oversold here, but moving towards huge profits...I just don't see how.

September 19, 2008 1:51 PM  
TraderMark said...

Greg, within hours of the announcement the spread between CLF and ANR disappeared

Those in the know knew Harbinger was saying no. The rest of us just scratched our heads.

The stocks have been trading in a ratio that indicates the deal is dead. When that is officially announced I'll buy it back. Or if the spread widens than the deal has a chance.

Sliman,
UYG was my #1 position after 3 PM yesterday.

Link, in the old days the coal stocks used to trade independently - due to metallurgical coal for example ANR went up 120% while a BTU went up 30%. So there was a reason to pick individual stocks. In this new era where all that matters is what sector the hedge funds pile in and out of each day individual fundamentals seem to mean nothing so I guess KOL is as good as any other in this era.

Michael, the Fed has created an atmosphere that those banks with deposits will be laughing to the... ahem... bank. The rate they need to offer to savers in America is pathetic and they can borrow money very cheap (and I bet the Fed cuts rates even further - don't count it out) - they make money on the spread.

Those banks without huge commercial or debt exposure should do very well. But aside from 5-7 in which the charts are clearly telling us whom they are (PNC, WFC, USB, BBT) the rest you are gambling on who has the bad assets.

Again people are assuming all this with house recovery in 6-9 months, economy picking up early 09 etc. These are the same people who said there were no problems a year ago. Their Kool Aid is neverending.

September 19, 2008 2:00 PM  
Oa said...

I sell 1/2 of my UYG today...Stiil own MS & GS

September 19, 2008 2:17 PM  
Oa said...

hey Mark,
what you think about USO.. Is USO going back to up trend?

September 19, 2008 2:22 PM  
Bob said...

Bought GS yesterday - sold it today. Now I'm back to even for the year. Its almost like they closed the casino for the last 9 months.

September 19, 2008 3:42 PM  

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