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Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Bookkeeping: Adding to James River Coal (JRCC)

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I am watching Arch Coal (ACI) drop 25% in 2 sessions; you know what hedge fund owns Arch Coal don't you? A certain one going out of business... the sharks are now berating his positions.

Instead of starting a position in Arch Coal (we already own enough coal stocks) I can choose any of the ones we own which are also being puked up - I've chosen James River Coal (JRCC) which is down 22% in 2 sessions for a "flip and trade" - the only way to make money in these stocks anymore. That is, buy them when they are punished, and sell on the pop. So this is only a trade and nothing more.... this is a renters market, not an investors as I've been saying for months.

We're buying here near $33, the stock bottomed out at $30 last go around so maybe tomorrow we get there... if so, I'll buy another batch. And then we'll try to flip the whole thing out near $40 otherwise known as the stock price at the high yesterday for this name. I could do this with any number of names in the fund as they are all 1 monolith it appears; all down 8-12% a day for the past 2 days. Pick a sector - natural gas, oil, oil services, coal, fertilizer, global engineering, copper, mining, it's "all the same stock". But no reason to do it across the board when picking any 1 stock in this group is the same as any other. I am keeping all the others at low allocations because it is too much work to buy 10 stocks today and tomorrow, and flip 10 stocks out in 3 days when the market rushes back into these names if oil is up $2. So we'll just pick 1 and do the "trade". While shaking our head at the "casino".

We moved JRCC up from a 0.8% stake to 2.4% - if it gets to $30 tomorrow, we'll move it to 4.0% and then flip the whole thing out in the upper $30s or so and call this "investing" in this new era. Just another fun day at the casino where stocks intrinisic value obviously changes 25% every 48 hours.

Long James River Coal in fund and personal account


2 comments:

Walt said...

I was watching Taking Stock on Bloomberg today, the analyst mentioned that JRCC did not hedge their contracts, they decided to wait because they thought coal price will going up. Looks like a good call on their part.

TraderMark said...

Yep, they are the most unhedged co for next year. Not that it matters in this day and age of wholesale sector moves.

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