Continuing to scale in Mosaic (MOS) and James River Coal (JRCC) on weakness
In the rally Monday I cut back Potash (POT) and CF Industries (CF) to 0.1% stakes so I'm going to start rebuilding these as they have fallen quite a bit - CF being destroyed to tune of 16% down on downgrade. This is why I scale in, and take profits when given.
Mosaic up from 2.6% to 3.4% of portfolio with purchases in the $77s
Potash from 0.1% to 1.6% of portfolio in the $146s
CF Industries from 0.1% to 1.7% of portfolio with purchases in the $92s
I said in earlier purchases of James River Coal (note we sold this at $35 on Monday) we wanted to see $24-$25s and we got it today - up from 2.1% to 3.3% of portfolio
If these fall another 8-10% we'll add more. This is not an investing climate, only for traders so thats what we're doing. Again let me stress we are doing this from a position of >50% cash and we're just using part of our portfolio to trade, until this market begins to respect fundamentals again.
p.s. RIP Washington Mutual (WM) another short opportunity we called but could not partake in.
p.s.s. I still think a bailout gets announced by Sunday night.
p.s.s.s. the fact we have to game bailouts more than company fundamentals shows you this market is a complete waste of time at this moment
Long all names mentioned in fund ex Washington Mutual; long Mosaic, CF Industries, James River Coal in personal account
Friday, September 26, 2008
Bookkeeping: Adding Fertilizer and Coal
Posted by
TraderMark
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9:48 AM
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Labels: CF Industries, James River Coal, Mosaic, Potash
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8 comments:
complete waste of time is an understatement mark. tis utter chaos out there...
with WaMu I think we have confirmation that the "troubled bank list" is pretty much a joke....
Yep but we knew that
IndyMac was not on the list the quarter before it blew up
WaMu not on the list the quarter before it blew up despite the market saying "hello! danger will robinson!"
Just another inept government institution or is that repetative? ;)
http://www.fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/archives/pdf/2008/TheMarket-092608.pdf
Disagree with your purchase of MOS
Fertilizer under price pressure
With the possible lift on the ban on offshore drilling, would the drillers be worthwhile in this recent bashing? That's the only glimmer (emphasize glimmer) of positive news in the 'commodities' recently I saw.
PS Did you term the 'Kool Aid' analogy? Bill O'Rieley was flipping out, as usual, and used it. Another blog reader????
I don't know on the Kool Aid - been using it on the blog since summer 07.
As for the driller comment - it really does not matter. Fundamentals are detached from stock prices right now. Everything is a daytrade. Trying to apply logic has been useless for 3-4 months now.
But to answer your question there are long term contracts in place in deepwater drills and Petrobras is trying to lock in supplies 5-6 years out. Not that it matters.
Mark, do you plan to trim/add your SDTH holding? It keeps going south on increasing volume - though no bad news. What do you think about it?
No I won't add
Chinese small caps are like washington mutual right now
no one wants them, no one believes in them, and 100% growth rates are rewarded with PEs of 5
until that changes there is no reason to throw more money at them. Their fundamentals are completely ignored. If you have a 3 year time horizon and are patient they are great buys here, but you could of said the same 40% higher.
Its a risk aversion game right now. Chinese stocks are considered risky. Even Baidu is being punishes and thats one institutions buy.
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