The chart is actually breaking out - unfortunately to the benefit of shorts, not longs. The 50 day moving average ($144) is quickly closing in on the 200 day ($136s) - the last thing you want to see is the 50 day to cross over and below the 200 day. This seems to be the fate unless things change quickly. For now, based on charts alone, this is a stock to be shorted/sold - not bought. In fact a very easy short with a nice stop loss over current resistance areas (I keep repeating that but many of these commodity charts look identical - i.e. broken) At $130 there is some support with March 2008 lows, but past that the next level down is $120 (January 2008 lows) and then it goes from there...
Despite providing a service that will be in demand at oil $60, $80, $100, $120, or $140 Transocean, like all the deep sea drillers simply seems to be a hostage to oil prices. In "theory" oil services should have some separation from direct Energy & Production companies, but theory only works well in the classroom. We'll keep track of the fundamentals just to keep ourself educated; also some word that cash flow is such that the company is seeking ways to return cash to shareholders (i.e. special dividend?)Another company who provides extremely detailed earning reports. Hard to do apples to apples year over year comparisons due to the acquisition of GlobalSantaFe (GSF) last year.
- Transocean Inc (RIG), the world's largest oil and gas drilling contractor, said second-quarter profit doubled, topping Wall Street estimates, on strong demand for its offshore rigs.
- Transocean has seen rates for certain deepwater rigs top $600,000 per day as high crude oil prices prompt demand from exploration and production companies. Tight rig supplies have also helped push contract awards higher. The average daily rate paid for Transocean's drilling fleet rose 18 percent from a year earlier to $238,600 as contracts were renewed at higher rates.
- Second-quarter profit rose to $1.1 billion, or $3.45 per share, from $549 million, or $2.63 per share, a year earlier. Analysts on average had expected a profit of $3.30 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
- Revenue more than doubled, soaring to $3.1 billion.
- Day rates increased 4% sequentially and 18% year over year. Utilization rates across all rigs was 87% (down from 91% last quarter).
7 comments:
trader
Thanks for all your posts. I am sticking to the commodity stocks even though it has been painful. Adding SKF today. Keeping some cash.
Mark,
Here is an observation, take it for what it is worth. Three weeks ago you had a poll. That poll indicated most readers were salivating to jump back into the commodities. I was one of the few who voted that the run was over, but that is besides the point. I have also noticed that the comments in most of your points have dried up. My casual take on this is, Smart money was moving out while things looked good. The rotation was happening while the fundementals were/still are terrific. Not all that surprising. What is/was left to hold the bag was the small fry. It seems that many of them have now been washed to shore and the few that are left holding are at best clinging to small gains and at worst very under water on their postions. If a person was to ever play the bounce now may be a time for a very, very, short term bounce. Personally, most of the meat in the commodity bull has been consumed. There will be some scraps left over for the vultures, but as the the saying goes, the new bull rally that will occur at some point will not likely be lead by old leaders. If you disagree with that just look to history for your guide.
Things that look interesting at this time, stuff that fundamentally suck. Refiners, semis, airlines....yes airlines(although I just sold into yesterdays strength on most of those), stuff that no one believes in. What do you think the fundamental picture of POT looked like when the stock was trading sub $10? Probably not very good, in fact it probably looked a lot like the industries you criticize today. Take it for FWIW.
Keep up the good work, I do enjoy hearing your spin!
nxgstock
I am one of those small fry who has been in commodity stocks for five years. When Heebner, Don Coxe and Rogers move on so will I. Meanwhile pull backs like these are normal. I guess that is what makes a market.
nx,
I remember your comments
The question is about time frame. You were correct on the observation and since then we had big rallies in the groups you mentioned.
But with a fund timeline, and not trying to change the portfolio 100% every 3 weeks it is hard to play this market. What is "good" one week is "bad" 3 weeks later, and then completely reverses. So 3 weeks ago you sell everything and go into retail, financial, airlines, auto. Now what do you do? Sell them all and then find the next spot? That's just not a legitimate way to do things in a fund structure. If you are a personal trader you can do different things.
What makes it difficult is the market changes its mind every month on what is hot. I see the charts look bad on things I like, and now am resigned to selling into spikes. You saw that post Tuesday evening when I bought a lot of commodities but wrote you need to now treat them like banks - all I am hoping now is 48 hours of rally and then sell into the spike. That doesnt mean I dont like them the most for a 6 month or 24 month period. But right now they have been broken stocks.
But buying an airline for a 6-12 month hold? Hard to do unless you think oil is going to $80. I am not convinced of that yet but it could happen. Refiners when US gasoline demand is shriveling? I've been waiting to put that trade on for 18 months. It worked yesterday for the first time iN FTO TSO HOC etc. Etc.
I am adjusting on the fly and my style is not suited for this market. I like to buy breakouts. In this market breakouts are sold. What rallies are the broken stocks at the bottom of a trough. I don't buy those 99% of the time, so this is a very tough market for someone of my style. Since everytime I buy a breakout - its sold within 72 hours, so I'm constantly being hammered.
Right now this is a market where you have to catch knives and hope you caught somewhere near the bottom. That's a dangerous strategy to me.
Mark,
Fair enough, it is a very tough market and most things have been smacked. Indecission is the demise of a trader in this environment.
Refiners......as I said with airlines a few weeks back, what is not to love about these. They were priced in at $140 oil. Holding in there today like champs. Oil up, market down,and refiners up, go figure. WNR missed by .04 cents and is up 5%, 8% for a little while. HOC did the same thing yesterday. Unless you think oil is going to scream back to $140, refiners are a huge buy. WNR is my personal favorite.
WNR is the crazy trading stock - Mr volatility. I like FTO the best - they have had some quarters they actually made money in a terrible environment and can process a lot of the sour. Also they seem to be located in favorable locations.
I was hoping to buy it on a move over $22 today (resistance) but its back down 6%
I usually put this trade on 2x a year the past few years, but this year its been a disaster. At some point it works :)
What airlines do you buy or do you use an ETF (is there one?) I could see it at least for a trade since they appreciate far more than DUG does.
I am out of the airlines as of yesterday AM. I was buying LCC, UAUA, AMR. No ryhme or reason to which ones other than concentrating on the ones that had been most severly raped. I don't believe in the long term fundamentals of airlines either. They are trading vehicles for now. Great counter moves to oil. Like you said, much better than buying the DUG. My gameplan, if airlines can pull back down 30% or so I'll load up again. If not, the money is in the bank.
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