Thursday, August 21, 2008

'Rising Tide Growth' Performance vs Peers July Update

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Aside from measuring Rising Tide Growth versus market indexes, the past few months we have begun new measures to track performance versus it's peer group, the "mid cap growth" category of mutual funds.

Apr 23: 'Rising Tide Growth' v Mid Cap Growth Mutual Fund Peers
May 9: 'Rising Tide Growth' Performance vs Peers April Update
Jun 23: 'Rising Tide Growth' Performance vs Peers May Update
Jul 26: 'Rising Tide Growth' Performance vs Peers June Update

Note: For newer readers, the Apr 23 post has a detailed methodology breakdown, and is worth the quick read.

We now finally have a true apples to apples comparison as our first year completed as of July 31st. Our general big picture goals once live is to try to finish in the top 10% of our category most years - that would place us at the very top over 3 year, 5 year, 10 year time frames. Of course that goal won't be reached every year, but have to aim high. There are about 1870 funds in this category so any finish near the top 200 or so would place you in the top 10%. Finishing in the top 25 in any 1 year would be an extraordinary year in my eyes.

July was a horrid month for us as we lost just over 8% - however my hunch would be that it would be horrid for most of the other funds in the "top tier" for the past year since the stocks rallying in July (and the first part of August) were the "junk sectors" - the beaten down stuff that no one wanted except deep value fund managers who have been decimated the past year. I, we, all of us tend to focus on the short term performance so sometimes it is good to take a step back and analyze the longer term (and in reality 1 year is not that long of a time either)

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As of the previous month we had been the #1 fund (out of 1860) in our category by a whopping 3%. But our return was 21.1% (19.4% after fees). We dropped a long way in July so I was curious how we would stack up when the final results came in. As of July 31, Rising Tide Growth NAV was $11.09, creating a 10.9% return (we started at NAV $10.00). As always my results are kept by third party, which I link to in the left margin of the blog.

RTG Return: +10.9% (9.2% after fees)
Top 25 peer range (1 year as of July): +7.2% (1st place) to +0.0% (25th place)
Average of all peers: -7.8%

Here are the top 25 performers in the category for July 31, 2008.

I love looking at this to keep things in perspective because the harshest critic of myself is... myself. We are going to have bad months and bad quarters along the way. But our lead (over the #1 fund) only fell 1% from a 3% lead to a 2% lead, and we still finished as the #1 fund in our category after a 8% loss in July. As I envisioned, the funds we were competing with for the top spot over the past year, had similar types of stocks and were decimated in July, even worse then we were. Again we at least carry cash and some short hedges, whereas 99% of mutual funds have 0-2% cash and no short exposure. I walked away from July in complete dismay but "relatively speaking" we still outperformed the pack, and on a yearly basis we did fantastic. To put in perspective how bad a year this was, in our category if you made 0% you finished as the 25th best performing mutual fund in mid cap growth (remember, out of 1860 peers). Keep in mind the S&P 500 was down 14% during a similar time frame [Bookkeeping: 'Rising Tide' Performance Year 1] so even a 0% return outperformed the market by 14 points.

In summary - we'd be the best fund in America in our category by 3.7%. We'd be beating the 25th best fund in our category by +10.9%. We'd be beating the average of our peer group by +18.7%.

Looking around the landscape - as I scroll through all the non sector funds - the #1 fund in mid cap value returned -1.7%. Only 7 funds in mid cap blend had a positive return, none over 5%. So no matter the style in mid cap there was no one close. In the small cap categories of value, growth, or blend only 2 funds were ahead of us. In the large cap areas of value, growth, or blend only 7 funds beat us. So in the entire non sector specific category we would of been the 10th best performing fund. (I believe there are roughly 6000-6500 non sector specific equity funds) And the top performer in all of mid cap funds. I'll take that for a rookie year. But the results demonstrate just how tough a year it has been for the mutual fund industry and investors overall (Hedge funds had the worst 1st half of the year in 20 years)

As always, our long term goals are to be near the top of this list in the 3 year, 5 year, and 10 year categories. Since I did this to see how we compared to peers on 1 year basis, it won't change much month for month, but now that we have 1 year under our belt as an apples to apples comparison I'll check back every quarter since the "standings" won't change much month to month.

[Legal Disclaimer: Rising Tide Growth fund is a hypothetical fund and in no way, shape, or form can we guarantee similar results in a similarly structured product when launched]

7 comments:

Guy said...

TM: Good job on your returns!

However, what does it say to you that the "best and brightest" really haven't performed all that well? Maybe they should take up new careers as teachers or doctors? Maybe we could free up some of that excessive pay and give it to those who might be productive? It is amazing that they are paid for such mediocrity. I am sure we will look back on this period of time and say what the hell were we thinking. Never have so many been so sure and so wrong about things they have no control over. Just think how much time is taken for people to come on CNBC to explain something that are passionate about yet in the end they are completely wrong about. It tis amazining!!

TraderMark said...

I've said many times they should scroll along the bottom of the screen the guests last appearance and what they said and/or stock picks and return etc.

It tells me very few use top down thinking (macro views) - and it confirms a lot of ills I view about the system. As much as I knock hedge funds the one thing about them is if you stink for a period of time you will lose your clients. That leads to other issues (only having a short term focus and crazy volatility) but at least if you stink you are eliminated fast.

In mutual funds they rely (as do our politicians) on ignorance and apathy and lack of financial education. Many are just giant sales machines as is most of Wall Street. Used car salesmen with better suits - send us your money, we know best.

Now this was a horrid year and one could argue -8% which for example was the average for mid cap growth beat the market indexes by a good amount, but of course you know many who were down 15,20,25% for the year at the bottom 1/3rd of the bell curve. I don't have an issue with lagging an index for 1 year... but many of these guys lag (by a wide margin) over the long run (5+ years). And just keep on rolling.

You do realize about 60% of mutual fund managers don't have a penny of their own money in their funds. That says it all right there.

Anyhow I consider this year to be an outlier on the "upside" - which I suppose is necessary for people to even give me a chance. But I won't be able to repeat that sort of out performance versus markets and peers every year.. but hopefully still stay in the top 10-33% most years.

Guy said...

Over the last couple of months I have read books by David Swanson of the Yale portfolio fame, and you should see his take on the Wall Street sales machine. Basically his books say you can't beat the market eventhough he does consistently. He doesn't say what he does but as best as I can tell he diversifies, allocates capital, and rebalances constantly. He gives lots of examples of how Wall Street (not just main street) is buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

TraderMark said...

Agree

People piled into Heebner after 80% year and post Fortune cover story
that was the "top" within 3 weeks. Down 20%+ since. Now they pile out.

When if they believe in Heebner they should be piling in.

I invite you to go to Yahoo message boards for CGMFX and scroll back about 2-3 weeks and read the vitriol. I was a bit shocked. But then again people are swing trading mutual funds nowadays so nothing shocks me.

What is funny is most people sent him their money because they cannot manage their own accounts with any success ;) Anyhow, at this point its turned into apathy over there and probably that means its at or near a bottom.

But just another example of buying at top, selling at bottom. Human psychology is half the battle.

Bluedog said...

Impressive results. You need to get the RTG fund up immediately. Every day down is more potential cash leaving my pocket! ;)

BD

Lawrence Chiu said...

There is something that is not discussed and that is, how would your fund handle major redemptions? That would force you to sell positions. Would you sell everything in equal amounts or would you sell the ones you have the most gains on, or most losses on? What's your plan?

Look at Legg Mason's Value Trust run by Bill Miller. He had $18.4 billion in customer redemptions last quarter and $19.2 billion in the prior quarter.

TraderMark said...

Hi BD,

Thanks - it felt a lot better on Jun 30th but relatively speaking and compared to people who do this full time, with teams of analysts and access to institutional research I feel like a good performance was accomplished.

Lawrence, we actually addressed that a lot in both jan and mar 08 during those swoons. #1 above all else I hope the transparency issue lets people in on thinking and hence leads to less redemptions - for example over at CGM Focus they are in the dark what is going on and when the fund drops 20% there is sheer panic. Maybe the transparency won't matter when people get emotional but I think it will help offset it. #2 Aside from maybe 4-5 weeks during the past 13 months I've held at least 10% cash, and many times up to 20-25%. So that would take care of a big swath of redemptions.

Legg Mason Value only has 9 Billion in total assets so I cannot imagine he lost 18.2B and 19.2B back to back - that would mean a 50B fund shrunk to 10B in 6 months. Thats a 80% reduction. Granted he has lost 30% from PERFORMANCE alone so you have to separate a fund shrinking from (a) losing a massive amount of money on its own vs (b) redemptions

But anyhow that is an outlier - you dont see 80% shrinkage in 6 months (if your numbers are accurate). In worst of time I could see 10,15% type of redemptions and again cash on hand usually would take care of that. If it had to get to liquidations I'd sell out of a lot of the small holding positions at the bottom of the portfolio - the 0.1%, the 0.2% type of stakes as needed. A lot of those are effectively 'closed positions' but I don't want to keep retyping 'I'm re-opening position ABC' or 'I'm re-closing position ABC' if I decide to add to them, so instead I keep them in a group at the bottom of the portfolio. But you could generate a few % of assets by selling those off incrementally. And then from there you sell partial positions off individually but it would not be 1% off of every position - its judgement call on each one.

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