Friday, August 15, 2008

Harbinger Seeks to Raise Stake in Cleveland Cliffs (CLF)

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This is an interesting move considering Harbinger thinks this is the top in the commodity "bubble" - watch what they do, not what they say. Wouldn't one be selling off exposure to commodities if this was the top?
  • Hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, the largest shareholder in iron-ore company Cleveland Cliffs Inc (CLF), said on Thursday it has sought approval from Cleveland Cliffs' shareholders to raise its ownership stake in the company.
  • The hedge fund is opposing Cleveland Cliffs' proposed takeover of Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), as it contends that the Alpha deal is not in the best interest of shareholders.
  • Harbinger said in a regulatory filing that it has asked Cliffs' for a shareholder vote that would allow the hedge fund to acquire at least one-fifth or more of Cliffs' outstanding shares.
  • Harbinger currently controls about 15.57 percent of Cliffs' shares. It also indicated it would not seek to acquire more than a one-third stake in Cliffs.
To be a fly in Harbinger's offices... I am boggled by the actions versus the rhetoric. But a lot of things have been boggling me of late. ;)

[Jul 31: FT.com - Mittal (MT) Considering Bid for Alpha Natural Resources]
[Jul 25: More Drama at the Cleveland Cliffs Corral]
[Jul 16: Thoughts on Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Deal]

Long Cleveland Cliffs, Alpha Natural Resources in fund; long Alpha Natural Resources in personal account

2 comments:

soccerbill8 said...

Mark also, in regard to you pointing out their buying actions contradicts their rhetoric in that commodities are peaking, well Alpha is more resistant to a cyclical commodity peak because the met coal is more supply constrain than anything and also, the STEAM COAL is quite inelastically demanded, because electricity use is not so correlated with economic growth (for example look at how utilities usually perform in terms of earnings during recessions, they perform just the same). What I am saying is that Alpha is a good hedge against commodities peaking (if one believed that) because it has less cyclical economic exposure than CLF. Just trying to add onto what you said, because I too am amazed at the greed factor.
Someone mentioned that Harbinger cannot be serious because if they may try to own 1/3 of CLF, well when the reject the deal, CLF will owe alpha $100mil and technically Harbinger loses $30million ..immediately (like 1/3 of $100 mil if you think of it like that), I don’t think these greedy %^^&$$*s will settle for that.

On another note, I noticed volume is drying up across many commodities and coal especially, this usually signifies disinterest and may mark (no pun intended) limited downside/bottom, so when/if big money returned they move up, albeit with a ton of resistance. This disinterest signified an end to the downside and coming upside in the past few “commodities have peaked” fear fests…like you were preparing for like march and January….just noticed that fwiw (probably not worth much to HAL9000 )

OT: your solar basket seems to be doing quite well, maybe meena polar will spur another 5% sector move.

TraderMark said...

Bill, I believe we'll have another nice ride in commodities as we move forward in the year. The best thing right now is for people to give up - the stocks to drift listlessly for a while, and then slowly build up for another run.

To make money now you have to be like a bank buyer the past year - only buy on an oversold dip and then try to squeeze out a gain as they rally into resistance. That's really not my thing and a very tough way to make money because if you are wrong in timing you will lose a lot quickly. I prefer easier entries and stocks working to the upside.

I still have no change to fundamental view on coal or fertilizer. But I'm not going to fight an army of hedge fund computers.

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