Sunday, August 3, 2008

Fund Holdings Earnings Preview for the Week

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Here are our holdings that report earnings this week; as always we look at a lot of different names in various industries (that we don't own) for company specific and economic signals; this is the last enormously busy week and then it will slow down a bit. There are quite a few interesting names in the retail space especially which I'd like to see how the market reacts to. Also we'll be through most of the larger companies (S&P 500 types) by the end of the week. So far we've missed any earnings blowups of note, but good results have not mattered much either as our stock holdings have for the most part been sold off post earnings.

Monday
None

Tuesday
Home builder DR Horton (DHI) - I expect continued bad news, but this is a counter cyclical holding for us - i.e. something that works to the upside when global stories get punished by the markets.

James River Coal (JRCC) - not my favorite coal name but it's been a fast moving stock when the sector is in favor. Unlike the other 3 coal stocks we own, this one I could see potentially missing some numbers. (I'm not saying it will, but I prefer the other 3 names from a purely fundamental basis - this stock is more of a "trade" stock) We won't have a large holding going into Tuesday.

Wednesday
Global infrastructure name Foster Wheeler (FWLT) - this name has been beaten to smithereens and this sector is notorious for its "lumpy" quarters which does not jive well with Wall Street's demand of "promise this number and then beat it by X% or we'll sell your stock back to the stone ages". If you believe in charts, we'd assume something negative is in the offing. Short of large scale cancellations, the stock is becoming very cheap vs peer group on a forward basis.

One of our remaining natural gas stocks that we've cut back on as the chart has degraded, Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) - quarter to quarter results mean little - these trade almost directly with natural gas futures.

Solar stock Yingli Green Energy (YGE) - these stocks are always the most difficult going into earnings because you can be +/- 20% in an instant. On the plus side the sector has been beaten down tremendously so perhaps expectations are low enough so we have some positive upsides.

Thursday
Ocean driller Atwood Oceanics (ATW) - another of these names that crude at $70, $90, $110, or $130 should not matter to from a business perspective but since it's all "just one big trade" it trades up and down with oil.

Ocean driller Pride International (PDE) - see above

Friday
None

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