(click to enlarge)
Trust me I feel like this right now with those darn commodities although we still hold some good proportion - right now we are in either step 13 or 15 of the commodity "bounce" ;) The difference nowadays is the full spectrum of the above chart used to take months to play out - now it takes a few weeks at most, and many times a week or so in our A.D.D. trading/quant fund led market.p.s. for those who follow Ken Heebner, it looks like he has abandoned the commodity trade in the past 10-15 days. Or cut back severely. His concentrated holdings should of been up somewhere in the 4-5% range today. Instead CGM Focus (CGMFX) was flat - today was a key "tell" to see what was suspected over the past few weeks was indeed true. After 6-7 weeks of pummeling it looks like he said 'no mas' sometime in the past 2 weeks. A change in direction - right or wrong, we won't know until we look back in a few months... interesting nonetheless.
We're just spreading our bets over multiple sectors at this point (we finally enjoyed a nice day - up nearly 2%), and ready to go much more heavily short if the market gets off the Kool Aid. Back at it tomorrow.
2 comments:
I love it! Going to have to frame this on my wall somewhere. It's amazing how predictable human nature is. Thanks for the graphic.
Zach
Genius - good call on the Heebner commentary also. Question though, in this market, what comes after step 19? Do we go back to step 1, or is there a new step representing increased volatility?
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