Petrobras is one of the few names I would be comfortable leaving for a 5 year vacation on and coming back to - I continue to believe it has the potential to be the most highly valued stock in the world by market capitalization, and it will be the next era's Exxom (XOM). However, for reasons stated above I'm letting this one go for now as we have other stocks that basically move in the same direction and in same magnitude. We just hold far too many names at this point even if many are overlaps of each other (i.e. creating baskets).
We've held this name since January 4, 2008 and we leave with a $3300 gain. I'm continuing to bleed off these global growth names one by one, and eventually one of these sales will be the tinder for for a commodity rally ;) While the stock is back down to yearly low levels (and thus might serve as a good buying opportunity) unlike the previous 2 iterations (as shown below) this time it is below all key moving averages, so I'm not quite so bullish for this episode. That said, that is a short to medium term outlook - for a long term hold this is among the best in terms of fundamentals. But this is not a market rewarding fundamentals.
Today's actions have removed 3 sub 1% positions from the portfolio and I continue to look for others to cull.
No position
5 comments:
Knowing how much you love technicals, I'm curious why you didn't sell at the break of the 200 and 50 DMA, back at $65? I think you're right about the short term retracement, though. I'd like to get in at $45.
BD
I don't love technicals
I'm being forced into using it predominantly due to the nature of this market
Back at the end of June commodities if you recall were the one thing holding up while the indexes were down 8% for the month.
I cut it back but not out. I prefer to be 90% fundamentals with only a sprinkling of technicals. This market has made that probably reverse. However, I think even technicals are becoming somewhat useless since I am seeing breakout after breakout fail. It's just a random mosaic at this point, driven by news or that days money flow. Which can reverse 180 degrees the next day.
I didn't mean love technicals to the exclusion of fundamentals. I just notice you like to buy stocks that are fundamentally sound, that are breaking through resistance. But in any case, I didn't realize you cut back at the point. That was a good move in retrospect.
"I think even technicals are becoming somewhat useless since I am seeing breakout after breakout fail. It's just a random mosaic at this point, driven by news or that days money flow. Which can reverse 180 degrees the next day." - completely agree with you here. You also combine that with very light volume throughout. We're floating in chop right now...
BD
"...chop...", phew, for a while there I thought we were floating in crap
bluedog - what do you use? a 50-/200-dma downcross? or when the price drops below both the 50- and 200-dma
TIA
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