So aside from victories you get to see bad decisions in this transparent methodology we pursue
here. Unlike the pundits I'll put the post it note on my head that says "Doh!" and admit it.Personally I think there is a major overreaction happening in Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) but this is essentially a 1 drug stock, and while I think the cloud around this drug is very overstated I have no idea how the Street will treat this stock going forward. Even the analysts are on completely opposite ends of the spectrum based on what I'm reading.
We were lucky to cut back, for technical reasons only, earlier this week, so we can escape with a very minor loss of $1300. A part of me wants to double or triple down here, and then try to sell around $25-$26, but I don't have enough conviction to make this a 4-5% type of stake. And as a 1-2% position, even if it bounces back to $28 or so it would not affect the overall portfolio enough to matter. Plus it would be a risky maneuver - and/or something I would of done 10 years ago when I was a gunslinging brash non capital protecting fella. In the end I don't like drama. But in a year this could be a $45 stock or a $20 stock. I just don't know which. So we'll take our ball go home and remind ourselves why we should stick to biotech ETFs [Aug 15: Where is Institutional Money Going? Biotech - 3 ETFs to Review] instead of individual stocks, unless those individual stocks are named Gilead Sciences (GILD).
With the stock up 6% today after yesterday's carnage, we'll take our remaining 0.4% position and go home.XBI, which was the biotech ETF we had our eye on a few weeks ago as it was "breaking out", now has punished anyone who bought the breakout, and has pulled back to the 50 day moving average. Impossible to tell if HAL 9000 is done selling off biotechs (HAL must change his mind by the day), so I'm not buying but it's a low risk entry with an easy stop loss for those interested. But is biotech something the hedge funds were just playing with for the month of July before they move to another field to ravage? Or is this a new place to hide out? Who knows.
No position
10 comments:
Check out MYGN I haven't done any hw on this, but the chart is fabulous.
Yeh I wrote about it earlier this week in the SQNM piece
Good thing you cut back in the $28's! What a fall that was!
Good short-term call Mark. AMLN has potential to rise again in a few months (as so many other small biotechs do), but the risk here is just too great. There are better places for your money at this time.
Yep MBIA, Ambak, Freddie, Fannie, any airline etc
this market is nuts.
Mark, What are your thoughts on picking up a stake in FRE or FNM if they have a small sell-off after this huge upward correction? I see amazing long-term potential for both, even at their current price... it feels like we may have left Vegas.
I cannot model government intervention so its really impossible to say.
Should add gov't subsidies on solar, clinical trial or FDA approval results for pharm, oil and commodity prices, interest rates, etc to the list. It's all the same game.
Was just curious about your opinion because I've made a lot of similar plays as yourself.
Right now I have a very cold hand, so I am the last one you should be asking :)
You may have a cold hand at the moment, but you've made some good calls in the past week. I noticed that my APWR buys were timed with yours (b4 earnings, and on the dip to 18 after earnings). That was a solid bounce off of the 200 and an easy 10%.
My next pickup may be GM if they crack the 20 and 50-MA, or on the dip if they bounce off the 20 again. It has been held down, but is showing regular 10% flutters. I expect that they will receive strong verbal support from the candidates in this year's American election (unions and american pride) causing at least a 20% breakout.
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