We mentioned last week we'd increase exposure in Apple on a move above $170 or its 50 day moving average. While I feel like I am going to somehow get burnt on this trade, I am sticking to my "system" and adding Apple (AAPL) here north of $171. We've taken it up to 3.3% of the portfolio. I'd like to see it clear low $180s which is old resistance to get real constructive - again I am still a bit uneasy here - we will need the market to remain bullish for this trade to work. If it drops back below $164 we'll cut back and take some small loss. Or... that "double bottom" in the mid $150s might, in retrospect, been a screaming buy signal. We'll only know in when we look back in a month or two.
Another "breakout" chart is Amazon.com (AMZN) - in the old days when oil went up every day it was a clear play on the US consumer will be too poor to drive to the mall and hence will order like mad from home. Now with oil headed back to $20 or below, I don't know what the play is other than quant hedge funds want technology. It's booming today and broke through a clear resistance area of $85 where it topped out multiple times.
EDIT: Here is the Amazon.com driver- Citigroup said on Monday that Amazon.com Inc's (AMZN) Kindle electronic book reader appears to be selling much better than expected and could double a previous estimate for units sold this year, sending shares in the online retailer up 9 percent.
- With few cool new gadgets expected on the market, the Kindle could be one of the top electronics gifts of the upcoming holiday season, along with Apple Inc's (AAPL) newest iPhone, Citigroup said.
- "Turns out the Kindle is becoming the iPod of the book world," Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in a note to clients. He kept a "buy" rating on the share.
- Mahaney estimates Amazon will sell up to 380,000 Kindles in 2008, up from a previous forecast of 190,000, noting that adoption rate would be similar to the first year of sales for Apple's media-playing iPod. He sees Amazon selling up to 150,000 Kindles in the fourth quarter alone.
- Mahaney also expects Kindle and related revenue of more than $1 billion by 2010, compared with a previous view of $400 million to $750 million.
Long Apple in fund; no personal position
1 comments:
Tech is continuing to work. No sub prime, has not run up like commodity stocks the last few years. Adding to QLD. I am with you Mark. Hope we are not nuts!
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