Atwood Oceanics (ATW) again provides the
shortest earnings release of any company we follow [
May 8: Atwood Oceanics Short and Sweet Beat]. Matched analysts estimates, and continues to prosper. Fundamentals say buy, technicals say sell/avoid/short - we'll stick to technicals. However, a very nice long term double bottom could be forming in the chart - once commodities come back as the flavor of the week.
- Atwood Oceanics, Inc., (NYSE: ATW - News) Houston-based International Drilling Contractor, announced today that the Company earned net income of $60,381,000 or $0.93 per diluted share, on revenues of $141,372,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 compared to net income of $32,033,000 or $0.50 per diluted share, on revenues of $98,371,000 for the quarter ended June 30, 2007.
86% year over year earnings growth for a forward P/E of under 13. The Wall Street circus continues. We'll buy back (since we ignore fundamentals) when it crosses back over both the 50 and 200 day moving average - the 50 day is in the $49s and falling like a rock. Someone else can catch the knife and buy it at the $45s, $44s, $43s, $42s, $41s, $40s or wherever it ends up. Another methdology is to buy this double bottom somewhere around $41 and then stop out below $40 if it breaks that chart formation. However upside will be limited by the 2 major moving averages now acting as resistance...
If a P/E of 13 is not worthy maybe a P/E of 8 will be - we just don't know how far these will go (down).
Long Atwood Oceanics in fund; no personal position
4 comments:
This whole sector is way under valued. I am adding to my positions carefully but everyone should be on board even at these levels.
http://www.oilenergystockvideos.blogspot.com
It’s a joke..people fear earnings dropping..well ATW has net positive cash…so even if for some miraculous reason earnings would drop off after $5+ EPS in 2009….ATW should still be higher. If it stays at 40 or below they can buyback like 20% of stock with cash flow…or borrow and buyback 30% if they wanted so earnings are guaranteed never to go down.
Just like RIG…it has a 14% earnings yield on 2009 earnings…..even if those are cut in half, it still yields 7% which is fabulous. And the estimates will be easily beat if RIG stays this low, even though oil is dropping, and even if oil stays lower (just not below $90) because RIG will be able to buyback so much stock this year and next if their stock stays this trashed..they will be assured beating 09 numbers. If RIG stays under 130..they can use this year’s cash to buyback enough stock, to bump up 09 EPS by like $2.00 if they wanted….and that doesn’t even include their ability to pay off a few billion in Debtb(which increases EPS too) and pay out a 2-3% dividend.
And that’s RIG which is a slower grower than ATW, ATW has more growth and less debt. This is insane.
These companies should just gladly wait for their stocks to come in though, so they can buyback like 20% of them, and then issue 5% dividend yields as insiders buy buy buy.
the good thing is unlike the banks there are actually real fundamentals here
So acquisitions will be made for a song by larger players
I am sure Bill Doyle is buying like mad at Potash. The cash flow that the fertilizer companies are throwing out, now is sickening and 2009 will make 2008 look silly.
But quant funds dominate the market and they don't want this trade. So until they do, it's sort of dead money or at best range bound.
Best thing would be a quick move down for oil to $100-$110 and then stabilize and go sideways.
Right now the oil price is like the subprime exposure - it goes down a bit every day/few days which is sort of like banks releasing some new bad news every few days. The pattern is identical. Only the name of the sector is different.
But again - why fertilizer is treated as crude oil is beyond me other than the quants.
and coal too
I love the way right after the ICO ceo said oil has no effect on coal prices...the correlation between oil and coal got even stronger.
I would short the market intelligence index and long GME if there was such a trade ;)
i hear GME is moving into the trading desk business. strong Gen X sales.
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