Tuesday, July 1, 2008

What a Crazy Day

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It is always amusing to see the end of the day gain or loss in the indexes, and how it sometimes hides the wild action of the day. Today was one of those days - we gapped down (bearish), rallied from what appeared to be a test of support (bullish), gave that all up and tested new lows - 1260 (bearish), and then reversed and rallied to the highs of the day (bullish). For all that action and headache, it just took us back to right near where we closed yesterday. But it scared and/or emboldened traders multiple times, in completely different directions. Absolutely nuts - as they say in bear markets neither bulls nor bears have an easy time making money (the strongest rallies are usually contained within bear markets, but they are sudden and out of the blue).

Here is a 2 day chart



As I revisit my sales today, they all look shrewd at 11 AM, wonderful at 1 PM as we started into the abyss, and putrid at 3 PM. Ah the market, she humbles us all - often on a daily basis. Today was one of those days - hopefully you had an easier time of it than me. Back at it tomorrow.

3 comments:

Risk Manager Jeff said...

Yeah, I got blended today. I was telling a friend of mine this morning, that I had to stop watching the market today; otherwise I'd do something stupid and lose a whack of money.

I didn't take my own advice.

hrs0944 said...

yeah - I got whip-sawed also - hit stops on both puts and calls - hung it up at 2:30 so I missed that last move - probably okay, I would have don't something else stupid - still long [1/4 positions] SDS, DXD, QID, & SKF - Thursday will be interesting - doesn't the market close at 2:00?

this damn market has turned us all into daytraders - got to concentrate on expanding my trading horizon

TraderMark said...

hrs, pull up a chart on S&P from 2003 to June 2007.

Then compare it to July 2007 forward. The only way to make money in this market is either pick the right 25 stocks out of 7000 or trade.

Unfortunately in downdrafts we've now had 5 times since last summer - the market overwhelms the individual stocks. So you have to adapt versus a benign environment.

Hopefully in 5 years I'll have a very boring blog - i.e. wow another bright and breezy day with full employment, stock market trending up, no volatility, little inflation - yawn, just printed another 0.3% gain today.

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