I've lowered the % gain threshold this week to 7%, but its still a sparse group (understandably considering the bad week in the markets) - what can I say - fertilizer, coal, and natural gas (and/or oil exploration) continue to dominate. This is not a bipolar market.... this is plainly an incredibly narrow market where you have to be in teeny slivers of subsectors to make any money. It's harsh out there.
My gut (just a hunch) tells me this could be one of the last (if not last) weeks these same groups will be on this list ... if the 'rotational' selloff does in fact continue per previous patterns. Some of these stocks in the "blessed sectors" are nowhere near even minor support levels, so there are some major "air pockets" below if they do begin to sell off.
We have been moving away from these 'blessed' groups for a few weeks (too early, as we left some upside on the table, but you can never nail the tops or bottoms) and just this week we kept fleeing [Jul 1: Cutting Some Generals] but even the remaining exposure to said generals whacked us this week. This is why I fear going "long oil" right now. Because when it reverses I think it's going to make some of the moves we saw this week in coal, fertilizer and the like look like child's play. But I could always be wrong.
Anyhow, we've looked at the top performers for the year a few weeks ago, so let's look at something a little longer than a week but shorter than the year to date time frame. To review, after a horrid March, the markets suddenly turned up without looking back (literally) on April 1st - rallied well for nearly 2 months on hopes of the '2nd half recovery', and then had the worst June since the Great Depression - wiping out all those gains. So let's see what stood out during that period. I just used an arbitrary 20% gain for the quarter as a cut off - this returned a solid 127 names; but dominated by a few sectors. Sectors thankfully we were in. (fertilizer, oil, coal, natural gas)
However, by being cautious about the economy as a whole and thinking surely this nearly 2 month rally (April, May) cannot continue on Kool Aid alone - I retarded our performance somewhat as we owned some of the biggest winners in large % of holdings (coal) but we cut them back to smaller holdings after realizing very good gains, only to watch them go on to stupendous gains. Frankly it is always harder to sell than to buy in my opinion... momentum takes stocks far further than you ever imagine. I thought coal was a 2009 story so the stocks would begin to react later in 2008, so to see this thesis already working out surprised me. On the other hand, don't want to beat ourselves up too much because we made the flip to Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) (+110%) from Peabody Energy (BTU) (+48%) and that doubled our gain in that 1 portion of the fund. [Apr 8: Changing Coal Allocation - Peabody Energy Out - Alpha Natural Resources In]
Criteria as always
- Market capitalization $2B+
- Average trading volume 100K+
- Stock price $10+
| Symbol | Company Name | % Price Change Last Qtr. |
| PCX | Patriot Coal Corp | 176.3 |
| GDP | Goodrich Petro Ord Shs | 168.9 |
| HK | Petrohawk Energy Corp | 142.1 |
| CLR | Continental Resources Inc | 118.1 |
| ANR | Alpha Natural Resources Inc | 110.0 |
| CRK | Comstock Resources Inc | 105.5 |
| MEE | Massey Energy Co | 98.3 |
| ENER | Energy Conversion Devices Inc | 97.9 |
| XCO | EXCO Resources Inc | 93.1 |
| EAC | Encore Acquisition Co | 82.6 |
| WLL | Whiting Petroleum Corp | 71.0 |
| SD | SandRidge Energy Ord Shs | 68.9 |
| JBL | Jabil Circuit Inc | 66.7 |
| ESI | ITT Educational Services Inc | 65.9 |
| ELN | Elan Depository Receipt | 65.4 |
| WTI | W&T Offshore Inc | 65.0 |
| FFIV | F5 Networks Inc | 60.7 |
| PVA | Penn Virginia Corp | 60.2 |
| AGU | AGRIUM INC | 59.0 |
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile | 57.7 |
| SM | St Mary Land & Exploration Co | 57.5 |
| FCL | Foundation Coal Holdings Inc | 57.4 |
| CPX | Complete Production Services Inc | 54.4 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology Group Ltd | 51.1 |
| SAF | Safeco Corp | 49.9 |
| CHK | Chesapeake Energy Ord Shs | 48.6 |
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corp | 48.5 |
| FDG | FORDING INC | 48.3 |
| UNT | Unit Corp | 47.5 |
| PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources Co | 47.4 |
| SOHU | Sohu.com Inc | 47.1 |
| HP | Helmerich & Payne Inc | 45.1 |
| GTI | GrafTech International Ltd | 44.3 |
| CLF | Cleveland Cliffs Ord Shs | 43.9 |
| NBR | Nabors Industries Ltd | 43.0 |
| ACI | Arch Coal Inc | 42.6 |
| CNQ | Canadian Natuaral Resources | 41.2 |
| CXO | Concho Resources Inc | 41.0 |
| BZP | BPZ Resources Inc | 40.9 |
| SGP | Schering-Plough Ord Shs | 40.5 |
| APPX | APP Pharmaceuticals Ord Shs | 40.4 |
| FST | Forest Oil Corp | 40.0 |
| BIG | Big Lots Inc | 39.9 |
| EDS | Electr Data Ord Shs | 39.7 |
| HERO | Hercules Offshre Ord Shs | 39.3 |
| WLT | Walter Industries Inc | 38.3 |
| TS | Tenaris ADR | 38.1 |
| FLIR | FLIR Systems Inc | 37.8 |
| NOV | National Oilwell Varco Inc | 37.5 |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | 37.2 |
| CNX | CONSOL Energy Inc | 36.7 |
| EW | Edwards Lifesciences Corp | 36.0 |
| FRO | Frontline Ltd | 35.8 |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings Inc | 35.6 |
| GGB | Gerdau SA Depository Receipt | 35.5 |
| WHQ | W-H Energy Services Inc | 34.7 |
| OCR | Omnicare Ord Shs | 34.4 |
| GDI | Gardner Denver Inc | 34.4 |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group Ord Shs | 34.3 |
| KEG | Key Energy Services Inc | 34.2 |
| SWN | Southwestern Energy Co | 34.1 |
| DRS | DRS Technologies Inc | 33.3 |
| ME | Mariner Energy Ord Shs | 33.3 |
| BRCM | Broadcom Class A Ord Shs | 33.1 |
| OIS | Oil States International Inc | 32.8 |
| SCHN | Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc | 32.3 |
| POT | Potash Corp | 31.9 |
| STRA | Strayer Education Inc | 31.9 |
| HAL | Halliburton Ord Shs | 31.8 |
| DV | DeVry Inc | 31.8 |
| PTEN | Patterson-UTI Energy Inc | 31.5 |
| CTV | CommScope Inc | 31.4 |
| NIHD | NII Holdings Inc | 30.4 |
| MOS | Mosaic Co | 30.2 |
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics Inc | 29.4 |
| CPO | Corn Products International Inc | 29.0 |
| HES | Hess Corp | 28.5 |
| SPN | Superior Energy Services Inc | 27.7 |
| EP | El Paso Corp Ord Shs | 27.5 |
| V | Visa Inc | 27.4 |
| BUD | Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc | 27.2 |
| PXP | Plains Exploration & Production Co | 27.1 |
| TE | TECO Energy Inc | 26.9 |
| PWR | Quanta Services Inc | 26.6 |
| VMW | VMware Inc | 25.9 |
| NXY | NEXEN INC | 25.9 |
| COSWF | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | 25.5 |
| FTI | FMC Technologies Inc | 25.2 |
| FMC | FMC Corp | 25.1 |
| HLX | Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc | 25.1 |
| DRC | Dresser-Rand Group Inc | 25.1 |
| TRA | Terra Industries Ord Shs | 24.9 |
| CAM | Cameron International Corp | 24.7 |
| CCU | Clear Channel Communications Inc | 24.5 |
| APOL | Apollo Group Inc | 24.5 |
| WDC | Western Digital Corp | 24.3 |
| WWY | WM Wrigley Jr Ord Shs | 24.1 |
| FLS | Flowserve Corp | 23.8 |
| CEDC | Central European Distribution Corp | 23.8 |
| PBR | Petroleo Brasileiro ADR Reptg 2 Ord Shs | 23.7 |
| BUCY | Bucyrus International Inc | 23.7 |
| ONXX | Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc | 23.7 |
| ATW | Atwood Oceanics Inc | 23.5 |
| COG | Cabot Oil & Gas Corp | 23.4 |
| CIG | Companhia Energetica Minas Gerais | 23.3 |
| CXG | CNX Gas Ord Shs | 23.3 |
| NBL | Noble Energy Inc | 22.9 |
| SGMS | Scientific Games Corp | 22.7 |
| CMI | Cummins Inc | 22.6 |
| CCJ | Cameco Ord Shs | 22.5 |
| TRMB | Trimble Navigation Ltd | 22.4 |
| STR | Questar Corp | 22.2 |
| WFT | Weatherford International Ltd | 22.1 |
| NE | Noble Corp | 22.0 |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Co | 21.9 |
| NDSN | Nordson Corp | 21.9 |
| CMP | Compass Minerals International Inc | 21.1 |
| PCZ | PETRO-CANADA | 21.0 |
| PSYS | Psychiatric Solutions Inc | 21.0 |
| SE | Spectra Energy Corp | 20.9 |
| FLR | Fluor Corp | 20.9 |
| PDE | Pride International Inc | 20.7 |
| DRQ | Dril-Quip, Inc | 20.5 |
| EGN | Energen Corp | 20.4 |
| MR | Mindray Medical International Ltd | 20.2 |
| ESV | ENSCO International Inc | 20.1 |
| EQIX | Equinix Inc | 20.1 |
5 comments:
Hi Mark,
Have you noticed any particular area in the medical devices/heathcare (ie something levered to the aging demographic) that is doing well? This area has consistently bitten me, but I still feel compelled, that there are significant opportunities. Maybe the sector is more like the alternative energy space. Alot of competition, so investing in it, requires alot of "trading" in it.
PS - what site do you use to generate this list?
Tough to invest in medical
drugs have FDA issues but CELG and GILD seem to be 2 long term winners. DNA used to be
Much of the equipment stuff like Stryker or Zimmer even which used to be big winners now are more trading vehicles
The only ones I've really been doing are very narrow equipment - ISRG, NUVA, ILMN
And I still like the contract research organizations - but the one I've chosen on promise of China has been a pooper - WX. ICLR is one I've traded over the years and is a personal favorite (Irish)
MSN for screener.
my basket of biochem/biosci, life science, med devices names that i've been monitoring/invested in:
ILMN is a good choice, think of it like amazon... trades at a ridiculously high PE but just keeps going higher. if you can stomach that, and believe the growth/potential is real, then it works for you.
GILD as mark mentioned a solid winner
BIIB had some problems but Icahn is in there rabblerousing as usual
TMO jeff this one might be up your alley in terms of medical devices. its more-so on the research side of things. ThermoFisher Scentific. check it out. big hedge fund favorite as well
MIL this is more of a life sciences company but still a solid pick
there are so many different companies out there its almost hard to really get a hold of each sub-sector or industry niche. almost have to be a doctor or know people in medicine who are up to date with all the constant developments.
HI Mark
i see you are heavy into coal and clf and stuff agian. what happens if the dow tanks below the 1260 level..we are in bear market now. some of these stocks may correct more/longer...what happens then? or ar you pretty sure the coals will come back. and why? why do they take em down 20 percent in 2 days only to bring em up. you know i like clf...bought at 100,,,got to 120 and now down to 90! of course, i solf on way down..and lost money...i hate this.
ilmn..do you think that will continue up?how can you be so confident?
What if no bounce/ what about capituatlation?
I'm not really "heavy" into anything right now - I've held individual positions up to 6-8% when they really get beaten down. I am simply adding exposure as they fall in price.
I am not "pretty sure" of anything - anything can happen. I am not "confidant" of anything - the market is of its own mind. I am simply buying things as they fall, and the same stocks I sold off when they were running hard. I find it a bit amusing that no one wants to own the good stuff that they were happy to buy 1-2 weeks ago (at much higher prices).
If no price/capitulation - guess what, we'll lose some money. That's the market.
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