4th failed "reversal" in the past few weeks. The total inability to follow through for more than a few hours stinks. This is feeling more like 2001-2002 by the day.I thought I could put the buckets away for a day or two - apparently not. Where are those darn unicorns, butterflies, and mermaids? The 2nd half recovery was supposed to begin a week and a half ago! :)
Well we were actually up 3% around noon for the day. Unfortunately rallies don't last more than 4 hours around here anymore. *Poof* goes the nice day. Might get those natural gas target prices after all.
I won't sell my Mosaic. I won't sell my Mosaic. I won't sell my Mosiac (need to practice ahead of time)
Hide the children.
11 comments:
TM:
Thanks for the mention/ plug; good or bad it is always nice to be thought of.
Although viscious action, I still believe one day does not make a market; sentiment is bearish and folks are getting comfortable with the downside; this is generally a recipe for higher prices - but what will be the catalyst??
Your mention of this being like 2001-02 is interesting, and reminds me of the point brought up the other day. Oversolds in bear markets tend to be deeper and/ or take longer to reverse; this was clear from 1998, Jan 2008 and the prior bear market. Lastly, while I rely heavily upon sentiment to "call" the turns, the data is pretty clear that sentiment was a poor tool during the 1970's. It is an accepted risk to my methodology.
For what I do --my time frame and how I choose to operate in the markets, etc. -- we are still within normal limits of expected action. On the last go around when the market sold off in Jan, 2008, I sat with losing positions from Jan/ Feb until May when I sold at a small profit. Painful yes but the 2 S.D. move comes every now and then, and you just have to prepare for it.
Darn S.D.s!
I was hoping you were correct within 24 hours. Maybe you'll get 96 hours.
I still think good chance GE makes people happy Friday. We'll see. The question will be, from what level? hah.
S&p 1225 looking more likely with this reversal of a reversal of a reversal.
Gosh.
In the 2000-2002 correction this appears to be action similar to summer 2000 to summer 2001. Herky jerky with a lot of bad.
Unfortunately 2002 was just mostly straight down and I'm hoping 2009 does not recreate 2002.
Or we will lose another generation of investors. (many of the last era never came back)
Spring and Summer, 2002 was not pleasant; during that period if you were a day trader the action was great particularly on the long side; the market would open down and move higher all day presumably due to short covering.
What would be more ominous would be the lack of a bounce despite the bearish sentiment picture; sentiment gets bearish and over 90% of the time you will get at least a 3-4 week bounce. The lack of a bounce would not be good as you state
Mark, did you buy any of the nat gas names today?
No, just reallocated coal from ACI into the 4 others and bought fertilizer that I sold off (plus more)
I am close on XTO and EAC - both heading to 200 day.
I want one of the 4 ones holding the 20 day moving average - that type of strength tells me the market sees something.
There are SO many nat gas names so I am using charts more than anything. The ones not faltering lower than 20 day moving average tell me guys who study this stuff day in and day out like them for whatever reason and they will know better than me. Hard to analyze 50 companies all in the same sector.
Nat gas has held up the best, so I want to see that group falter (even the last survivors) and that should? be the bottom. Still waiting.
Cool. I'm watching CHK. XTO is a good name. I'll have to create an overlay to see how the smaller players stack up (HK, GDP, CRX, GMXR).
Mark, I love coming here and reading your recap and what longs you're looking at in order to prepare myself for the next trading day. I think you have the hardest job out there not being able to short (in terms of your fund) and having to find some long plays to make profit. I think yesterday was a clear example of the "Invisible Hand" or Plunge Protection Team at work. When the Invisible Hand is at work you can't even short on weakness and feel good about it.
Hi Mark
Do you have any thoughts on the m/c tool industry? It seems companies in this sector have been beaten down like hell (hurco, hardinge etc). How do you see the m/c tool industry performing over the next couple of years.
thanks
Mark,
Wow... you have been prolific the last few days. I'm going to go back and read all the posts this weekend and take scrupulous notes... commodities ARE the explosive growth of the forseeable future and you have some tremendous posts on this. A minor investor named Jim Rogers has been calling for this since 1999 and says we are just getting started...
I didn't know much about CLF... thanks for the posts
I wish I had the time to do the the extensive research you are able to do... I don't so I try to do what I do have time for well...
Regarding Danoff... I got in in 2004 before everyone followed... I read the M* report then and knew he was magic. The fund manager and team is EVERYTHING in mutual funds. I understood this and thus picked the best.
FOR ALL THOSE CONSIDERING INVESTMENT IN MARK'S FUND LET ME REPEAT THIS:
The fund manager and team is EVERYTHING in mutual funds.
Also let me repeat that I would not be here if I didn't think Mark was on the ball...
Regarding Montgomery... he is a great story... an MIT trained engineer who just couldn't stop pursuing his passion in his free time... he used his scientific knowledge to create models based on a proprietary method that looks at earnings growth, fundamentals, market sentiment (yes he quantifies this important element as well) and other factors. After he just trounced the markets with his own account a co-worker told him: "If you ever decide to go into stock picking professionally let me know..."
Brains, education, integrity, passion, skill, humility, risk management
BTW...
I am in danger of sounding obsequious here. No way Jose. If I disagree with something you've done (remember the moving average comments) I will say so... sue me!
;)
Blue - thanks. They say in bear markets, its tough for both bulls and bears to make money. That sounds counterintuitive but trust me at some point the bears will have their scalps ripped off and feel like longs right now. And it will come without warning. And longs will be flat footed and not positioned for the oversold bounce. It's not easy. Bulls are easy - throw dart, make money. Bears separate those who actually have skills from those who throw darts in my humble opinion.
jhantu, I am not familiar with those names or that sector sorry.
rosesryellow, thanks for the words - and I learned a new word = obsequious. It will come in handy when I am Federal Reserve Chairman and I try to fight inflation with "strong language" (i.e. 3 and 4 syllable words) instead of actually raising rates.
I wish Danoff would go to a smaller fund in Fidelity since his skill would shine more - how he does it with so many stocks is amazing to me, but he really treats Contra as his baby so he will never leave it IMO.
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