We'll see how the stock reacts, but on a cursory glance of fundamentals, everything looks quite juicy. Remember it's not the news, but the reaction to the news. Keep in mind analysts estimates $217M revenue, $0.58 EPS. Much like the fertilizers at some point you get so large the PERCENT increase cannot keep up with previous quarters, but the magnitude of the numbers are still impressive. If all I did was read earnings reports of stocks we own or follow in our sectors you'd think this market would be at Dow 20K!
They do have one of the shortest press releases out of any company I follow - short & sweet. Astounding 36% sequential revenue growth, and 247% year over year growth. For earnings the numbers were 49% sequential growth (wow) and some mind numbing number that blew up my calculator when you do year over year (excluding tax benefit) Gross margins now up to 54% from last quarters 53% - staggering in comparison to polysilicon based peers. I keep thinking this stock is too expensive and "next quarter" will be the one where expectations get too high and it will fall flat. First Solar keeps telling me "No soup for you". Bravo.
Only fly in ointment is no guidance so everyone has to hold their breath to see what they say so the market lemmings can react violently one way or the other the minute it is uttered.
- First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR - News) today announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 28, 2008. Quarterly revenues were $267.0 million, up from $196.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2008 and up from $77.2 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2007
- Net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2008 was $69.7 million or $0.85 per share on a fully diluted basis, compared to net income of $46.6 million or $0.57 per share on a fully diluted basis for the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2007 was $44.4 million or $0.58 per share on a fully diluted basis, which included a one-time income tax benefit of $39.2 million that resulted from the reversal of valuation allowances against previously established U.S. deferred income tax assets.
[Apr 30: First Solar Keeps Doing Enough to Satisfy Shareholders][Feb 13: First Solar Out with Another Great Set of Earnings]
[Nov 7 - First Solar (FSLR) Impressive Numbers]
Long Energy Conversion Devices in fund and personal account
7 comments:
Hey Mark...
Too late to get into Solar? Or good time to get in for some pre earnings ramp up?
Hong lol? Most of these solars are down 50%+ in 2 months. If its too late to buy them on a 10% rebound (when a stock drops 50% it needs to make 100% just to break even) then this market really is not worth being in.
Solar is dangerous though - for the amateur I'd recommend the ETF TAN
Any and all of these stocks can be up 50% in 2 weeks or down 40%. They are the most volatile animals outside of Ultra and Ultrashort ETFs in this market. FSLR is very stable compared to the rest.
LOL I should have been more clear.
the question was more directed at Ener as opposed to TSL, YGE etc.
I owned Ener at 30 and sold out a 55 or so. LOL just wondering if I should get back in...
I don't give out that advice because thats exactly the thing an investor can sue me for. :)
Now or in the next 30 years
I just say, I bought more today so my position should be clear from my position ;)
I will still be worried going into earnings because its as high priced as FSLR but right now the market hates the polysilicon makers and love the non - I expect that to reverse in 12 months or so.
Why is FSLR an OK stock at a high multiple, but ISRG not? Call me crazy, but I can see hospitals buying the robots, and Chinese growth being huge potential. I haven't seen a solar panel yet so it seems totally futuristic. Why is ISRG considered too expensive but FSLR given the go-ahead to keep running?
Umm.. hello Mr. C
I believe the market sees the "end market" opportunity for solar to be far greater than robotic surgeries. Considering a move to 5-7% of world energy would make solar a huge decade long grower thats 1 point
on ISRGs side is wide moat and non commodity business. But the questions are always what exactly is the market opportunity and when do they hit the wall. Solar as an industry doesnt have any "wall" anywhere near - its more of a "will there be a glut of competition" so 2 completely different issues for 2 industries
Both have pros and cons. FSLR is considered bless simply because of lack of polysilicon exposure. Once polysili returns to normal prices you should see a flood of competition come from the other players.
Right now they are all basically sold out for the year and much of 2009. So its not a demand issue. Much is supply constraints. But solar will be a huge volume, low margin business in the end. We'll see how many are left standing in 5-7 years and/or a new disruptive technology could always emerge.
love ENER and have been waiting patiently for a good entry for a long.
but, the chart is telling me to short in the intermediate term. long above 70, short below 65. this market sucks, but what else is new.
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