There is no chart support for LDK Solar other than a base it built in April - but it is not a stock near any moving averages and frankly this is the one group where buying stocks as they break above moving averages hasn't worked too well. You simply have to buy them when they look like they are all going to zero, knowing at some point in the future when karma is back in the group - they can skyrocket out of the blue. So once again - I am spreading my "bets" across this sector. Once Obama wins I believe this group will have a huge move in the fall.
I also added to Canadian Solar (down 10%) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE) "only" down 4% today but absolutely destroyed the past 3 weeks. Where these things bottom is unknoweable so we'll keep layering in as they plummet. Many are down 40%+ in the past month now. As a whole I have this 4 stock basket of solar now up to 5-6% of portfolio. This *is* one group that is making me get the puke factor...
As an aside there are some rumblings out of Spain about limitations about subsidies but we go through that dog and pony show every 5-6 weeks in this sector; if it is not one country it's another - at this point it's white noise and just a reason to cause a selloff. This type of action, again, is making me somewhat bullish because while the indexes are not being pummeled (today) - certain sectors are being shown the woodshed - all part of the cleansing process.
Long all names mentioned in fund; no personal position
5 comments:
I don't know, man. Looks like a falling knife. I got ass raped in LDK today (overnight hold). I'd like to get back in but I'm going to wait until the bloodletting stops. I think $30 is a safer entry.
But you've had very good timing in the solars in the past so you're probably right. Good luck!
Hey Mark, I posted this comment some time ago but dont recall seeing a response so maybe you might have missed it. Anyway, with regards to COW, I'm still confused as to what exactly you're buying when you invest in that ETF. I understand its 60% Live Cattle Futures and 40% Lean Hogs...but I'm not sure its as simple as the premise that "if Hog and Cattle prices rise 30% over the next year, COW will rise 30%". The reason for my concern is that at the moment, futures contracts for next year on both of those livestock are trading at a significant premium to the nearby contract prices (i.e. the ones expiring in July and August). So hypothetically, the 2009 futures are trading at a 30% premium to current prices (say current contract price is 100, but the Jan 2009 futures contract is priced at 130). So essentially, unless livestock prices EXCEED that expectation of a 30% rise, than COW won't rise. Have you thought about this aspect? Looking down the road at futures prices for next year, is it possible that the expected rise is already "priced in" to COW? I think its more complicated than just, "buy COW, meat will be more expensive next year." Thoughts???
BD, I hope you were being sarcastic in my "timing" with solar.
This is the 1 sector that has beaten me senseless. Hence I am employing the George Costanza methodology in this 1 sector since it seems to act completely different from every other sector. Instead of buying strength or breakouts or buying fundamentals... I am simply buying when they crater knowing the lemmings will be back. Not short term trades, and I have no clue which one will be the 'favored son' next time the sector rallies. I've been wrong every time trying to buy the "cheapest" so I am simply spreading across multiple names hoping 1 hits the jackpot on the next uprising. But as for timing - solar has been my arch enemy.
sdk, I don't know the answer to your query. My question to you is if you want to play this trend of livestock rising what is your alternative? In a world of few alternatives this is my only way to play the sector. Much like my Ultrashorts I own things I don't necessarily want to own but without ability to own futures directly (commodity account) or short individual name I have to go with what is available to me.
So I'm sorry I don't have the exact answer - the simplistic strategy of "crop shortage, ETF must go up" worked wonders in DBA in 2007 so I assume it will work similarly in late 2008 and early 2009 in COW. I don't see why they would act differently.
Coal got killed today.. Gas & Agg are two still standing.
Actually agg has been getting killed - go look at Deere, Agco, CNH Global etc. Only fertilizer subsector and Monsanto to some degree have held up. So you have to discern. And even fertilizer has pulled back to some support levels yesterday mid day.
Nat gas is in its own world. Maybe thats the last general that needs to fall before we can signal the all clear.
Hoping for another day or two like this in coal myself to build up positions.
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