Friday, July 18, 2008

Bookkeeping: Layering Out of some Mercadolibre (MELI) and Ciena (CIEN)

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Just raising a bit of cash on some bounces in the technology group - this market appears quite directionless and after our cursory oversold bounce the direction from here has no clear trend. Monday and Friday "they" liked commodities", Tuesday - Thursday "they" hate them. And vice versa for other things. Rudderless action. I was hoping for more of a sustained bounce into which I could build some short exposure but so far it's been relatively pathetic. Again, until the S&P crosses back over 1275 I consider this to be nothing more than white noise.

These 2 charts of the names I am selling are identical in nature (and frankly similar to the Indian banks we let go this morning) - stocks that had fallen hard and have now bounced back to a first support area (2o day moving average). One is very expensive and one is dirt cheap, but this market does not seem to discern. So having a low cash balance I am going to sell the Mercadolibre (MELI) for a decent profit from my last purchase, offset by a bit of a loss in the Ciena (CIEN). Basically I'm harvesting long exposure and building cash - "breaking even" in some of these names is becoming the victory. If the market was higher I'd be redeploying this money into short exposure but the question is what will the market "hate" next week - it changes it's mind daily (or hourly) - short the worst of breed? short the basic materials? the oil-gas? technology? who knows what the hedge fund computers will be slapping around next week. So even figuring out where to deploy the short exposure is now tricky - so some index shorts (which are useless unless the market as a whole gets trashed) & cash for now as I'm treating this type of bounce in a bear market an opportunity to raise cash.
  1. Mercadolibre (MELI) has bounced from $28 to $34, up 21% from this week's low andis now hitting its 20 day moving average of $34. Position reduced from 2.2% to 1.6%.
  2. Ciena (CIEN) has bounced from low $19s to near $23, up close to 20% from this week's low and now is hitting its 20 day moving average of $23. Position reduced from 2.2% to 1.6%.
The former could jump to the next resistance (50 day) at just under $40, and the latter at $26 - where I'd unload more. However, I don't think that will happen at this time although the relative strength of late is a bit constructive. Still not healthy charts.

Long both in fund; no personal positions


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