I am cutting it back from 1.6% of fund to 0.8%.
Normally I'd say something about fundamentals or technicals but none of it matters anymore. If crude goes up this stock goes up. If not, it goes down. It's as simple as that. So if someone could flip a coin and tell me what oil will do tomorrow I'll have a good idea if this will be a bad sell or a good one. Since my crystal ball is broken - I'm cutting some exposure back.
I do like the action (perking up) in coal and fertilizer but those are all just one big oil trade nowadays. If oil is up tomorrow - they can go up. If oil is down they will get trashed. That's all the market is now. Fun.
Even infrastructure stocks are now proxies for oil - today they ramp, after being trashed for weeks. When oil is up $3 construction programs live. When oil is down $3 construction programs die. This market would be very simple if someone could tell me what oil will do every morning at 9 AM by the time it closes.
Long Goodrich Petroleum in fund; no personal position
2 comments:
definitely a relief to see these names rally today although they are only up a small portion from where the secondary was offered. I got sandbagged with CHK, GDP and XTO all in the same week. Only XTO has broken above the offering price from the secondary. Someone is doing a good job of picking their selling spots.
Good luck - choppy market. Gains to be made but you have to work hard for them.
Zach
It is lunacy! I'm watching CHK and XTO. Both look attractive technically, but it is a whipsaw environment.
Post a Comment