- Fertilizer: Mosaic (MOS) down to 1.6% stake, Potash (POT) down to 1.5% stake, CF Industries (CF) down to 1.2% stake, Intrepid Potash (IPI) down to 0.7%
- Coal: Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) down to 1.5% stake, Massey Energy (MEE) down to 1.3% stake, Arch Coal (ACI) down to 1.1% stake
- Atwood Oceanics (ATW) - great chart - but simply worried about the market - down to 1.3% stake
- Natural Gas: Encore Acquisition (EAC) which we started last week and have a quick near 10% gain, down to 1.0% stake, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) down to 0.6% stake
I will assume this is a great fake out, and the people will jump back into the generals on this minor selloff, and I'll be wrong (again) - selling off some of my most favorite names sort of flies into the face of logic, but with some of these companies nowhere near any chart support and yet to face any adversity during a month the markets sold down nearly 10%, I am being cautious. Just showing you what I'm doing, and why - and we'll monitor from there. As I type this of course the market is drifting back up to 1276... (see it did not take long for that head fake to play out) Tricky market right now. Very tricky. I can make a case for a nice oversold 5% bounce here or a traumatic selloff - so it is very difficult to have any game plan for the near term since these are completely different outcomes and both are probable.
Long all names mentioned in fund; long Mosaic, Alpha Natural Resources in personal account
4 comments:
Mark, it's an ugly one out there today. And I think its worse, when you look at the internals. This is the first time, that the broader market AND the nearly all of the Generals have taken good hits at the same time. I also sold my ATW (down to zero for me), and added some short exposure. So we have new lows, broad market selling, generals getting hit (perhaps not woodshedded yet), and the VIX - still at complacent levels. I think we are both convicted in the Ag thesis, but I was wondering what the runner up thesis was for you? I'm inclined to still go with the deap sea drillers, but I was wondering what your take was.
Same thesis. Just lower prices preferred. No changes to thesis.
Are you just as big of a bull on met coal, at say a 20% hit? I'm not totally sure if we will get another round of price increases starting this fall. (I think FDG will be one of the earlier ones to report some new contracts) With the cut in iron ore inventory build, I think that makes a bit of a dent in met coal demand. Add in the inflationary problem, and perhaps the next round of contracts is relatively unchanged.
Prices dont need to go up from current levels for 2009 and 2010 estimates to be vastly incorrect.
Post a Comment