So I continue this defensive measure into a stock market I don't believe in. We've done with with about 20 stocks the past week. All these stocks are in prove me stage, until shown otherwise and I continue to be ok with giving up upside to protect capital until the indexes overall improve. A lot of leadership stocks I look to are showing no signs of life other than oversold bounces when the Kool Aid is hot and heavy. No sustained excellence from them. Hence I don't believe in this rally, and I'll take the "other side of the trade" of the CNBC pundits.I've cut Ctrip.com down to a holding stake of 0.1% down from 1.2%, with a sale around $47. I continue to build cash in this environment which I don't trust. Again, as I repeat daily now, if I am wrong (which has a 50% chance) and this is the beginning of the next leg up, we'll miss the beginning of the move and trail the market. If I'm right (50% chance) you'll thank me later as you watch your other mutual funds implode ;)
[Feb 28: Ctrip.com Continues to Impress]
[Jan 5: Zachstocks on Ctrip.com]
Long Ctrip.com in fund; no personal position
4 comments:
Mark, I was watching CTRP for the last a few days. I think it has a very nice bottoming pattern. It couldn't break $44 level until today. I think it is a good buy if it pulls back to $44 level again.
Hi Jerry - always interesting to see how people view things in a different light.
Myself, I'd prefer to buy it over $48 on strength since it would signify some real strength. We shall see. No harm lightening up here and getting it back a few % higher. Only time that doesnt work is when the move higher happens very fast.
This stock always seems to perform around earnings period. But its rich.
Hi Mark, I'm done with buying high and not being able to sell higher... By buying low, at least I'm not the one who looks most stupid :)
Jerry, come back to the dark side!
Now you'll be one of those knife catchers! :)
Do whatever works best for you, I say that to everyone. Develop your system and stick to what works for you. Everyone has different temperment risk tolerance, skill, etc. Once the market normalizes (2010?) things will be much easier to figure out. Everything now is about guessing random events that move the market 2% most every day.
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